Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Cheyenne, WY

700 
WWUS55 KCYS 150124
SVSCYS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
724 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

WYC021-150134-
/O.EXP.KCYS.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-150615T0130Z/
LARAMIE WY-
724 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4129 10491 4135 10473 4111 10448 4100 10487
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 338DEG 18KT 4133 10486 

$$

HAHN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT.  TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FROM
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  THESE STORMS
ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST AND ARE RATHER STATIONARY.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z.  THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
STRONGER STORMS INITIATING OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES FROM
00-03Z.  LAPS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 1500 J/KG OF CAPE UP THERE ALONG
WITH A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT YIELDS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 30KTS.  THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
OR EVEN A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE TSTM
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHT (A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL)
OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WY AS THE MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  GENERALLY HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH 06Z.  ALSO
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND ON ANY ONGOING RAIN.

LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500 J/KG. SPC HAS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STORMS COULD
WAIT TO INITIATE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
SINCE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF INHIBITION THROUGH THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WY BY THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN WY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
GOING...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG... THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE BEST SEVERE THREAT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER BY THE AFTN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEWPOINTS OF
55-60F AND WARM SFC TEMPS...CAPE IS UP TO 2500 J/KG...AND BULK
SHEAR IS 45-50 KTS...A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT STAYING INTACT OVER THE CWA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS TO BE WED EVENING WITH EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE NEAR THE SFC. THE GFS SUGGESTS DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES TO 40+ KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE
CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL BE A HAZARD. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE THE CAP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
WEST. GENERALLY A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER WARM
WITH GFS/ECM H7 TEMPS IN THE 16-18 DEG C RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BENEATH FLAT RIDGING. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S
INTO THE MID 90S FROM CYS TO SNY... BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH
AFTERNOON CU WILL IMPACT HIGHS. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER IN THIS
PATTERN. THINK WE WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON THU/FRI...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS
LIKELY WITH SUCH WARM THERMAL PROFILES. KEPT THINGS ISOLATED FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCYS AFTER 06Z WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...MVFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  AFTER A
COOLER DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30
PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MAJ/CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
306 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-152115-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
306 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

WYZ101>119-152115-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
306 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SEVERE STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
628 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             14 NE WHITAKER          41.55N 104.68W
06/14/2015  E1.75 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   PUBLIC

            REPORTED NEAR THE LARAMIE COUNTY LINE.

&&

DDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
631 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

WYZ101-102-150115-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS WY-NIOBRARA COUNTY WY-
631 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NIOBRARA AND EAST
CENTRAL CONVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

AT 631 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANNING RANCH...OR 20 MILES EAST OF DOUGLAS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MANNING RANCH AROUND 705 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 10495 4285 10512 4317 10497 4304 10465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 209DEG 15KT 4286 10501

HAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
647 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             25 NNE CHEYENNE         41.48N 104.61W
06/14/2015  M0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
700 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             7 N CHEYENNE            41.25N 104.79W
06/14/2015  E0.25 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   PUBLIC

&&

DDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
702 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

WYZ117-118-150130-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS WY-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-
702 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MDT...

AT 701 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF CHEYENNE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NORTH CHEYENNE AROUND 710 PM MDT.
  CHEYENNE AND WARREN AF BASE AROUND 720 PM MDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE SOUTH GREELEY HIGH
AND FOX FARM-COLLEGE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 23.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 349 AND 375.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4124 10515 4136 10470 4113 10454 4103 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 323DEG 17KT 4135 10475 4124 10511

HAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
703 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             10 N CHEYENNE           41.29N 104.79W
06/14/2015  M0.88 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED DIME TO NICHEL SIZE.

&&

DDEAL