Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
420 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ONGOING FLOODING
ACROSS NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. 0-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND
GENERALLY AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS HAVE
GENERATED QUARTER TO EGG SIZED HAIL ACROSS PLATTE AND LARAMIE
COUNTY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN WYOMING AND
EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA SINCE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS WYOMING BUT A FEW
CELLS MAY PUSH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS...WE SHOULD SEE
THE MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WHICH MAY BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL BE IN STORE
FOR US ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH SUCH HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH MORE SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW WE MAY END UP HAVING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA
AND UTAH TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH
PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND MOIST CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A BIT LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED MONDAY AS BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SITUATED OVER COLORADO. A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CWA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGES AS WELL AS EASTERN
WY INTO NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY MVFR. MVFR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY THEN LIKELY DROPPING TO IFR TONIGHT WITH THE STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY FOG MOVING WESTWARDS INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ALSO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
HIGH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NIOBRARA COUNTY RESULTED IN
FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND LUSK WITH MAJOR IMPACTS LAST NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING. FLOOD WATERS ARE RECEDING TODAY BUT MINOR
FLOODING IS STILL BEING REPORTED AROUND LUSK AND EAST OF LUSK
ALONG THE NIOBRARA RIVER TOWARDS VAN TASSELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE FLOOD WAVE AS IT PUSHES ALONG THE NIOBRARA RIVER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SO FAR...ONLY MINOR IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED 5
MILES EAST OF LUSK.

RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT
MITCHELL...ALTHOUGH THE RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS
WEEK. THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH A PEAK STAGE OF 8.2 FEET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE FORECAST ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE DUE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TSTORMS AND UPSTREAM RESERVOIR RELEASES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TJT/REC
LONG TERM...MAJ/SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
HYDROLOGY...TJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
304 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

NEZ019-020-054-095-096-WYZ101>119-052115-
SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-KIMBALL-NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
304 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE UNTIL 10 PM LATE THIS EVENING.

MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE THREAT FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE CHANCE
OF BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

NEZ002-003-021-055-052115-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-MORRILL-CHEYENNE-
304 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE THREAT FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE CHANCE OF
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
511 PM MDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             6 W WHEATLAND           42.05N 105.08W
06/04/2015  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
529 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

WYZ101-103-107-050000-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY WY-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS WY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-
529 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CONVERSE AND
NORTHWESTERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

AT 529 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAPRELE RESERVOIR TO
10 MILES SOUTH OF DOUGLAS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOUGLAS AND LAPRELE RESERVOIR.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND
151.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING.

LAT...LON 4295 10551 4262 10492 4246 10537 4264 10573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 218DEG 10KT 4267 10558 4260 10534

HAMMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
642 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

WYZ116>118-050130-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS WY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-
642 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MDT...

AT 642 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF NATURAL FORT...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHEYENNE...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 34.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 338 AND 364.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING.

LAT...LON 4149 10527 4148 10457 4100 10483 4100 10527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 179DEG 34KT 4104 10507

HAMMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
644 PM MDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             19 SW WHEATLAND         41.86N 105.22W
06/04/2015  E0.88 INCH       PLATTE             WY   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
714 PM MDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             15 W CHEYENNE           41.15N 105.08W
06/04/2015  E1.00 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KC

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