Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
608 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
NOW...MOVING GENERALLY IN AN EASTWARD DIRECTION. INSTABILITIES A
RE RATHER LOW SO ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER PULSE-NATURED...DYING
OUT THIS EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OVERNIGHT. A BIT LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME WARMING OF MID LEVEL
TEMPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORT RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER FLOW WILL BACK A LITTLE MORE WSW ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF THAT WILL DROP OVER THE PACIFIC NW. SFC
COOL FRONT SHOULD SAG INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BY LATE IN THE DAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION A BIT
MORE ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH CAPES GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

12Z GFS AND ECMWF STILL PUSH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING BY SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED LESS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH BY LATE SATURDAY TAKING
MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH WHEREAS THE GFS STILL
PUSHES THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS
BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WILL CARRY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OUT ON THE PLAINS...THEN WITH DEEP LAYERED
DRYING WE TAPER POPS DOWN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WE SEE AN UPTICK
IN POPS BY MIDWEEK AS AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW TAPS
MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH SUNSET.
STORMS WILL END AFTERWARDS WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NON-CRITICAL
FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1023 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

WYZ101>119-161200-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1023 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-161200-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
1023 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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