Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SE WY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WAS AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO LESS UPPER SUPPORT. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDUCTING PERIODIC
RIPPLES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
REFIRE OVER THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING SE OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING.  ONE FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK SFC TROF THAT
WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER SE WY BUT MAY FOCUS IT OVER THE PANHANDLE. CAPE
VALUES DO GO UP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY...GENERALLY IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OVER THE PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT. SHEAR
VALUES NOT ALL THAT HIGH BUT STILL DECENT. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
WARM FRIDAY AND EVEN WARMER SATURDAY AS 700 MB WARM ABOUT 2-4C.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM +16C SUNDAY MORNING TO +8C SUNDAY EVENING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING. ECMWF SHOWING WELL OVER AN INCH
QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTY SUNDAY
EVENING. DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

A PRETTY COOL DAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLING INTO THE AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO +6C. CONTINUED
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. CHEYENNE MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 60S MONDAY.

ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PRETTY STRONG JET FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD DAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STILL A WAYS OUT THOUGH AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY MAY GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK IN
SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OUT WEST STILL THE FAVORED AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AIRPORTS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
KBFF...KSNY AND KCYS FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
WEST WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD RELIEVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOONAL PATTERN
MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ102-106>108-110-112-114>119-
031130-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1025 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WYZ101-103>105-109-111-113-031130-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-
1025 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS EARLY IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
408 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

WYZ115-116-022300-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-LARAMIE VALLEY WY-
408 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

AT 408 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM...OR NEAR LARAMIE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARAMIE...TIE CITY CAMPGROUND...YELLOW PINE CAMPGROUND...UNIVERSITY
OF WYOMING WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM AND THE BUTTES.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 307 AND
327.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4146 10568 4146 10544 4118 10540 4118 10569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 359DEG 19KT 4139 10557

FINCH

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