Freeze Warning 1, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015

BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
ZONES INCLUDING...LUSK...CHADRON AND ALLIANCE.

DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S. WINDS WERE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015

TODAY...A DRY PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER. ASIDE
FROM SOME PASSING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ON TAP.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CONTINUED WITH
MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST.

FRIDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO RISE.
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TOO SCANT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATION IN LOW TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
AND THERE WILL BE MORE LOW LEVEL MIXING...WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015

PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM...BUT THERE ARE SOME CHANGES COMING
IN THE FORECAST.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...WE HAVE A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. COULD BE QUITE BREEZY SUNDAY AS GFS 700MB WINDS NEAR
30KTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME POPS REMAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE DRY.

THAT TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE IN NORTHERN UTAH.
MOST POPS OVER WESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER MONDAY. GFS MUCH FASTER BRINGING THE
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ECMWF
HAS TROUGH COMING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
ITS FIRST SNOW FALL AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2C TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NOTHING TO GET WORKED UP ABOUT YET...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
AREA AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
HUMIDITIES AND WINDS IN FAVORABLE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...TJT/KC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
508 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-161115-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
508 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.