Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
121 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...TRAINING OF ECHOES WITH ABUNDANT PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES INTO THE EVENING.

WEST OF THIS AREA...THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IN GENERAL...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF RAIN NEEDED TO BREAK US
OUT OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL. CONSALL MDL BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS AVG
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM SPOTTY AMTS OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVR
THE CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. HIGHER RES...CONVECTION ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE LOCAL AMTS
ARND AN INCH FROM TSRA THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.

MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE U70S-L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHEST PWATS/INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS...EXPECT A DRY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW PA
COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA LATE TONIGHT OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN POSSIBLE ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR
AND LESS HUMID CONDS...AS NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT ADVECTS A LOWER
PWAT AIR MASS INTO PA. UNDER MSUNNY SKIES...ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S NW MTNS...TO THE M/U80S
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY THU/THU NIGHT...MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SIGNALS A RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WX FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH
00Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E
COAST. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT
SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PM CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
MDL TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW FAST COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FROM ALL MDL DATA
THAT THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE /MON AND TUE/ WILL BE COOL AND
PERHAPS SHOWERY...WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND
POTENTIAL OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE HUMID CONDS...HAVE LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESP LOWER SUSQ ZONES.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS PEAK ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
CWA BETWEEN THROUGH 18Z...AND SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THU-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA.

SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>052-
056-281900-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-
246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ053-057>059-063>066-281900-
COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

PAZ064-065-271800-
YORK PA-ADAMS PA-
129 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK...AND ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL
200 PM EDT...

AT 128 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GETTYSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HANOVER...GETTYSBURG...PARKVILLE...HAMPTON...LITTLESTOWN...
MCSHERRYSTOWN...LAKE MEADE...PENNVILLE...BONNEAUVILLE...NEW OXFORD...
EAST BERLIN...LAKE HERITAGE...ABBOTTSTOWN...YORK SPRINGS...
HEIDLERSBURG...HUNTERSTOWN...FAIRFIELD...TWO TAVERNS...GETTYSBURG
COLLEGE AND GETTYSBURG NATIONAL MILITARY PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MINOR FLOODING
MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 7738 4005 7705 3972 7684 3972 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 237DEG 25KT 3978 7729

JUNG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

PAZ058-271815-
SCHUYLKILL PA-
144 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 144 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MINERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

30 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ST. CLAIR AND RENNINGERS AROUND 150 PM EDT.
  SHENANDOAH...FRACKVILLE AND ORWIGSBURG AROUND 155 PM EDT.
  MAHANOY CITY...MCKEANSBURG AND LOCUST LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 200 PM
EDT.
  TAMAQUA...TUSCARORA AND GRIER CITY-PARK CREST AROUND 205 PM EDT.
  MCADOO AND HOMETOWN AROUND 210 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BROCKTON...KELAYRES...
LANDINGVILLE...SCHUYKILL COUNTY AIRPORT AND PENN STATE SCHUYLKILL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 FROM MILE MARKERS 111 TO 139.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4053 7626 4066 7642 4068 7641 4092 7609
      4091 7600 4080 7587 4077 7582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 230DEG 41KT 4065 7627

TYBURSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
211 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S RUTHERFORD          40.25N  76.77W
05/27/2015                   DAUPHIN            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON VEHICLES

0151 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E MIDDLETOWN          40.20N  76.71W
05/27/2015                   DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN IN LONDONDERRY TWP

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500058 CTP1500059

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

PAZ058-271915-
SCHUYLKILL PA-
239 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 238 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MCKEANSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. VERY HEAY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAMAQUA...ORWIGSBURG...MCADOO...HOMETOWN...TUSCARORA...NEW
PHILADELPHIA...GRIER CITY-PARK CREST...DELANO...MCKEANSBURG...
COALDALE...SNYDERS...KELAYRES...CUMBOLA...MIDDLEPORT...NEW
RINGGOLD...BROCKTON...KASKA AND MARY-D.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 FROM MILE MARKERS 134 TO 139.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 7583 4064 7599 4061 7600 4068 7616
      4090 7603 4091 7600 4080 7587 4074 7576
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 215DEG 19KT 4071 7600

JUNG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S RUTHERFORD          40.25N  76.77W
05/27/2015                   DAUPHIN            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON VEHICLES

0151 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E MIDDLETOWN          40.20N  76.71W
05/27/2015                   DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN IN LONDONDERRY TWP

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THOMASVILLE             39.92N  76.87W
05/27/2015                   YORK               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN NEAR ROUTE 30

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500058 CTP1500059 CTP1500060

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
321 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

PAZ065-066-272000-
YORK PA-LANCASTER PA-
321 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL AFFECT YORK...
AND LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM OVER
SUNNYBURN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR...
  HOLTWOOD AND SHENKS FERRY AROUND 325 PM EDT.
  WAKEFIELD AROUND 335 PM EDT.
  SMITHVILLE AROUND 340 PM EDT.
  QUARRYVILLE AROUND 345 PM EDT.
  STRASBURG AROUND 350 PM EDT.
  PARADISE AND GAP AROUND 400 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL INCLUDE KIRKWOOD...RAWLINSVILLE...WHITE HORSE...CHRISTIANA
AND GORDONVILLE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3992 7638 4011 7594 4005 7593 3996 7599
      3987 7599 3988 7600 3976 7606 3976 7608
      3973 7610 3974 7612 3973 7612 3972 7618
      3972 7645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 237DEG 27KT 3979 7637

EVANEGO