Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS State College, PA

552 
WWUS51 KCTP 202159
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

PAC021-111-202230-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150620T2230Z/
CAMBRIA PA-SOMERSET PA-
559 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR CAMBRIA AND EASTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 557 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
CHERRY TREE TO NEAR PATTON TO NEAR WINDBER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EBENSBURG...JOHNSTOWN...NANTY-
GLO...PORTAGE...SOMERSET...WESTMONT...WINDBER...BEAVERDALE-
LLOYDELL...BERLIN...BOSWELL...CARROLLTOWN...CENTRAL 
CITY...CRESSON...DALE...AND DAVIDSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THIS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
 
&&

LAT...LON 3988 7907 4020 7902 4028 7906 4034 7901
      4073 7880 4072 7878 4059 7846 4054 7849
      4051 7854 4041 7855 4031 7864 4008 7873
      4006 7876 3980 7877 3972 7881 3972 7898
      3985 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 211DEG 42KT 4076 7881 4065 7866 4020 7879 

$$

EVANEGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. SOME
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
JUST NORTH OF A MONSTER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM SO THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY BUT
QUITE WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR AND BANDS ABOUT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL COULD PRODUCE
SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS MORE LINEAR LOOKING CONVECTION
IMPLYING HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
RELATIVELY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW LOTS OF ISSUES WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NCEP GEFS/GFS AND THE 16Z HRRR SHIFTED THE
THREAT TO THE NORTH. AWAIT MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE WE MAKE ANY BIG
CHANGES. GEFS SHOWS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES NORTH OF
OUR CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. BUT SOME INCONSISTENCIES SO MADE NO BIG
CHANGES.

GOOD CHANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES ON BY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS QUICK END TO RAINFALL
IN THE 11 TO 2 AM TIMEFRAME. AMOUNTS LOWER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
WHERE THE CONVECTION SETS AND MOVES THROUGH UP WILL DICTATE THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN BEFORE AND AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE BILL/TROPICAL RELATED RAINFALL IN THE SREF PASSES
EAST OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERNMOST AREAS.

THERE IS A POP AND PW MINIMUM BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING AND THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER PWS BEGIN TO MOVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EARLY IN THE WEST. NEXT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS WHEN IT REALLY SHOULD DRY OUT ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM 500 MB
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT BRINING RAIN AND LOW CIGS TO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN PA IN THE WARMER AIR. WEAK BANDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN/WEST CENTRAL PA.

MODIFIED THE TAFS TO SHOW THE MVFR/VFR MOVING MORE STEADILY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RAIN FILLS IN OVERTIME. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST 23Z TO 04Z WILL BE PEAK LOWERED
CIGS/VSBY WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RAIN AND MOIST AIR WILL PRODUCE FOG AS THE STEADIER RAINFALL
LIFTS TO OUR EAST.

COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A
MASSIVE RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES WARM DAYS AND MVFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/HAZE IN MORNINGS. PERHAPS EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID-WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

MON...GENERALLY VFR.

TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-211830-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ056>059-211830-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ026-211830-
HUNTINGDON-
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA NEAR THE MARYLAND BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ033>036-064>066-211830-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ063-211830-
CUMBERLAND-
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

PAZ024-033-034-202115-
BEDFORD PA-SOMERSET PA-CAMBRIA PA-
405 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 404 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CARMICHAELS TO NEAR FARMINGTON TO NEAR
DAVIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN AND 30 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  URSINA AROUND 425 PM EDT.
  NEW CENTERVILLE AROUND 440 PM EDT.
  SOMERSET AROUND 455 PM EDT.
  FRIEDENS AND ACOSTA AROUND 500 PM EDT.
  BOSWELL AROUND 510 PM EDT.
  CENTRAL CITY...JEROME AND DAVIDSVILLE AROUND 515 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE ADDISON...BENSON...
BROWNSTOWN...CALLIMONT AND CASSELMAN.

THIS INCLUDES THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE FROM MILE MARKERS 100 TO 135.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3972 7938 3974 7941 3977 7938 3978 7940
      3979 7935 3983 7938 3985 7942 3990 7940
      4009 7926 4012 7922 4011 7918 4037 7899
      4025 7871 3973 7860 3972 7860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 231DEG 33KT 3993 7996 3976 7955 3914 7941

GRUMM