Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AT 2 PM EXTENDED EAST-WEST FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO
DUBOIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED
BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF OHIO. AIRMASS IS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RAP MIXED LAYER CAPES 1000-2000J. THE BEST
SHEAR IS INDICATED ALONG A NARROW ZONE CORRESPONDING WITH THE
FRONT THAT HAS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
ALONG THE NY BORDER ONLY AROUND 50...AND TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AREAS
80 OR HIGHER.

THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE FOR DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG AND NEAR THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOCAL HELICITY TO SPAWN
A TORNADO...BUT THE RISK IS LOW.

MODELS WANT A SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE SLOWLY THROUGH SRN PA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
LOW.

OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTERIN
AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE
TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER FORECAST... AS THE SLOW
MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR
THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR CONVECTION. 21Z TAFS SENT.

WIND GUST TO 48 KNOTS AT MDT.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH STORMS AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
437 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-045-046-049>053-056>059-063-
010845-
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-
437 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG INTERSTATE
80 LATE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND FREQUENCY ALONG...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-037-041-042-010845-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
437 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS CONTAINING
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ036-064>066-010845-
FRANKLIN-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
437 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND FREQUENCY ALONG...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
507 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

PAZ028-056-312130-
JUNIATA PA-PERRY PA-
507 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JUNIATA...AND PERRY COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 507 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEWPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MCALISTERVILLE AROUND 515 PM EDT.
  RICHFIELD AROUND 525 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE EAST SALEM...
MILLERSTOWN AND THOMPSONTOWN.

LAT...LON 4052 7729 4069 7726 4068 7715 4069 7711
      4068 7710 4068 7704 4066 7703 4066 7701
      4064 7700 4065 7698 4064 7697 4047 7706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 194DEG 27KT 4058 7716

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

PAZ064-065-312145-
YORK PA-ADAMS PA-
519 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK...AND ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 519 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAKE MEADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DILLSBURG AROUND 535 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE FRANKLINTOWN...
GARDNERS...HEIDLERSBURG...IDAVILLE AND WELLSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3994 7726 4003 7721 4003 7719 4013 7706
      4009 7684 3988 7705
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 205DEG 21KT 4004 7710

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

PAZ028-312145-
JUNIATA PA-
523 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JUNIATA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MCALISTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHFIELD AROUND 540 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE EAST SALEM...
MIFFLIN...MIFFLINTOWN AND THOMPSONTOWN.

LAT...LON 4057 7744 4065 7740 4069 7731 4069 7727
      4068 7718 4069 7712 4068 7709 4058 7717
      4058 7718 4057 7718 4055 7720
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 204DEG 21KT 4064 7729

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

PAZ057-312145-
DAUPHIN PA-
528 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MIDDLETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUMMELSTOWN AROUND 535 PM EDT.
  PAXTONIA AROUND 540 PM EDT.
  SKYLINE VIEW...HERSHEY AND PALMYRA AROUND 545 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLDSBORO...THREE MILE
ISLAND...HARRISBURG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HERSHEY PARK AND PENN
STATE COLLEGE OF MEDICINE.

LAT...LON 4014 7675 4018 7676 4020 7680 4020 7682
      4022 7684 4022 7685 4037 7679 4031 7661
      4019 7659 4016 7666 4015 7668 4015 7669
      4016 7669 4013 7672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 203DEG 21KT 4023 7673

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

PAZ019-027-028-045-049-050-052-056>059-063>066-312200-
CUMBERLAND PA-JUNIATA PA-YORK PA-SNYDER PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
LANCASTER PA-PERRY PA-LEBANON PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-UNION PA-
MIFFLIN PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-DAUPHIN PA-ADAMS PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-
535 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CUMBERLAND...JUNIATA...YORK...SNYDER...
SCHUYLKILL...LANCASTER...PERRY...LEBANON...SOUTHERN CLINTON...
UNION...MIFFLIN...SOUTHERN CENTRE...DAUPHIN...ADAMS...AND
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPRING MILLS TO NEAR RICHFIELD TO NEAR HERSHEY TO
NEAR RHEEMS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR STRONGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMPBELLTOWN...MOUNT JOY AND RHEEMS AROUND 540 PM EDT.
  MEISERVILLE...SALUNGA-LANDISVILLE AND PALMYRA AROUND 545 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE AVON HEIGHTS...
BEAVERTOWN...BERRYSBURG...CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT AND DALMATIA.

FOR THOSE DRIVING ON INTERSTATE 80...THIS INCLUDES AREAS BETWEEN THE
LOCK HAVEN AND MILE RUN EXITS...SPECIFICALLY FROM MILE MARKERS 183 TO
193.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE FROM MILE MARKERS 228 TO 289.
 INTERSTATE 78 FROM MILE MARKERS 0 TO 8.
 INTERSTATE 81 FROM MILE MARKERS 51 TO 110.
 INTERSTATE 83 FROM MILE MARKERS 14 TO 50.
 INTERSTATE 283 FROM MILE MARKERS 0 TO 2.

LAT...LON 4008 7714 4060 7713 4085 7775 4110 7729
      4081 7658 4052 7627 4049 7643 4026 7606
      4017 7600 3983 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 242DEG 32KT 4085 7760 4063 7706 4023 7665 4011
7656

LA CORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
553 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             NEW COLUMBIA            41.04N  76.88W
05/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       UNION              PA   PUBLIC

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E NEEDMORE            39.86N  78.13W
05/31/2015                   FULTON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN NEAR GREAT COVE ROAD AND TIMBER
            RIDGE ROAD.

0328 PM     HAIL             MILROY                  40.71N  77.59W
05/31/2015  E0.88 INCH       MIFFLIN            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E ORANGEVILLE         41.08N  76.37W
05/31/2015                   COLUMBIA           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN NORTH CENTRE TWP

0445 PM     HAIL             4 NE RICHFIELD          40.73N  77.07W
05/31/2015  M1.50 INCH       SNYDER             PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500064 CTP1500065 CTP1500066 CTP1500067 CTP1500068

EVANEGO