Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING WARM AND COLD FRONTS
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS STORMS FORMING ON A SHALLOW LINE FROM WARREN
COUNTY THROUGH TO KAE ERIE...THIS LINE IS OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND IS INCREASING IN STRENGTH. A DEEPER AND MORE
THREATENING LINE IS EXTENDING FROM ERIE COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL
OHIO TO SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO INDIANA. THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...ENTERING CENTRAL PA BETWEEN 4 TO 6 PM.  CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE REDUCED THE OVERALL DAYTIME MAX TEMPS...AND THE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER JOULES OF 2K SURFACE CAPE STILL EXIST THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTHCENTRAL PA. SPC HAS REDUCED CENTRAL PA TO A
MARGINAL OUTLOOK. THOUGH OVERALL QPFS HAVE DECREASED...THE THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS DUE TO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. CONSIDERING PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAIN
INUNDATED LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND MOVE
MOST OF THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LINGER HIGH CHC POPS
INTO THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FAR SERN COS...THOUGH.
THE CURRENT LOW TRACK SOUTHWARD...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH WEST
VIRGINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXPECT
DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA LATE WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSE TO 80F IN THE
S...BUT KEEP AT OR BELOW 70F IN THE FAR NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS BY 00Z THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM WED NGT THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATING EWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE N. ATLC OCEAN...WHICH
WILL ENSURE DRY WX DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY
WITH A LOW RISK OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN
ALLEGHENY MTNS. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CENTRAL PA IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR
/JULY 11-20/ BASED ON THE MOST RECENT 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMALS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F OVER THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY SUN-
MON WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 90F.

THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO TREND FROM QUASI-ZONAL ON THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY TOWARD MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
GENERAL TROUGHING LKLY TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF
NOAM. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW...ALONG
WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-
SUN. A BETTER FOCUS FOR PCPN SHOULD EVOLVE INTO THE MON-TUE TIME
FRAME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR
CIGS TO BE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 19Z TO 03Z BEGINNING AT
BFD AND THE ENVELOPING ALL TAF SITES AS THE FRONT PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. SOME SHOWERS AND TSRA COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES IN DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD
ALLOW...WITH LIGHT WINDS...FOR PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING.
FOG/MIST COULD LINGER TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST...UNTIL LATE MORNING. EXPECT OTHER SITES IFR TO MVFR TO
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. VFR SHOULD DOMINATE OTHERWISE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/CERU
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/CERU
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-150730-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-
317 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-150730-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
317 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

PAZ004>006-141930-
WARREN PA-MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
232 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WARREN...MCKEAN...AND POTTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 232 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LUDLOW...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WETMORE AROUND 235 PM EDT.
  WESTLINE AROUND 245 PM EDT.
  MARSHBURG AROUND 250 PM EDT.
  CYCLONE AND KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK AROUND 255 PM EDT.
  REW AROUND 300 PM EDT.
  SMETHPORT AROUND 305 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CERES...CLARENDON...
ELDRED...LEWIS RUN AND MOUNT JEWETT.

LAT...LON 4200 7801 4189 7789 4163 7903 4180 7912
      4200 7863
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 250DEG 44KT 4175 7898

KEARNS

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