Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
502 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK BORDER AND DRAGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
...21Z UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH DROPPED FOR NORTH CENTRAL PA...AS HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH.

WARM MID LEVELS HAVE THUS FAR KEPT CONVECTION IN CHECK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA...BUT MOST UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST PA REMAINS A VERY HIGH CONCERN. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE INTENSIFYING BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVING INTO
AN AREA OF EHI INCREASING ABOVE 2-3 OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE A GOOD BET AS STORMS CROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS FAR AS INGREDIENTS GO...THE CUPBOARD IS STOCKED. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE WORKING IN FROM
SE OH ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. PROXIMITY
OF WARM FRONT...WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND LOCALIZED TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENTS OF LLVL SHEAR WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES INVOF OF BROKEN-S
SIGNATURES OR ANY CELLS THAT CAN ISOLATE THEMSELVES FROM THE MAIN
LINE. BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CORRIDOR
FROM KFIG TO KIPT TO KAVP. LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE EHI VALUES (+2 TO +4) LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE S
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. A BUSY EVENING IN
PROGRESS...BUT THINGS WILL WIND DOWN LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING EAST ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY OF FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND MIDNIGHT. SWWD TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM THE SFC LOW OVER THE CATSKILL REGION WILL MEANS THAT
ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FROM 02Z ON WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH.

DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF STEADILY OVERNIGHT AND DIP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS FAR NRN PENN. LLVL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO BE SCOURED OUT UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DUE TO THE VERY LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE
SFC CFRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIGHT WIND...EVEN RIGHT IN ITS WAKE.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NRN TIER...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.

CONFIDENCE IN A 48 HOUR/2-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY
DRY/LOW PW AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
RESIDES WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA
COAST WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH
THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES
DIMINISHED THE ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND
LONG TERM.

AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...TRIGGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
TSRA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS.

CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOWERING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT DRYING WILL
BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS VFR WILL
DOMINATE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR.
SUN...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WEST.
SUN NIGHT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
453 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

PAZ004>006-037-102100-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-
453 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ010>012-041-042-045-046-049-051>053-102100-
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-
COLUMBIA-
453 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 397 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG...TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ017-024-033-102100-
CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
453 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 397 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG...TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ018-019-025>028-034>036-050-056>059-063>066-102100-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SNYDER-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
453 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 397 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG...TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEVOIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
511 PM EDT THU JUL 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTEVILLE            39.91N  77.57W
07/09/2015                   FRANKLIN           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500256

MACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
514 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

PAZ042-046-053-092145-
SULLIVAN PA-COLUMBIA PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-
514 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SULLIVAN...COLUMBIA...AND
SOUTHERN LYCOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 514 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BIGGERTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CENTRAL AND WALLER AROUND 525 PM EDT.
  JAMISON CITY AND FAIRMOUNT SPGS AROUND 530 PM EDT.
  RICKETTS GLEN STATE PARK AROUND 535 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BENTON AND PICTURE
ROCKS.

LAT...LON 4130 7631 4120 7632 4119 7631 4121 7670
      4131 7672 4133 7667 4131 7660 4134 7664
      4135 7663 4143 7626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 260DEG 31KT 4128 7652

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 PM EDT THU JUL 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTEVILLE            39.91N  77.57W
07/09/2015                   FRANKLIN           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY.

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW SHIPPENSBURG       40.04N  77.54W
07/09/2015                   FRANKLIN           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON PAULSON HOLLOW ROAD AND WIRES ON MOBILE
            HOME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500256 CTP1500257

MACH

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