Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO FOG/MIST GENERALLY EAST
OF U.S. 281 IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACRS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
NRN SECTIONS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING N/NW WIND
AND DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS TO FIT BETTER WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST). LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG CAP. NEW NAM12 IS SHOWING CONVECTION ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWFA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z...THEN WEAKENS IT AS IT
KEEPS A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS AS-IS
SINCE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...KEEPING CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. NEW HRRR IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF
ARE THROUGH 12Z. WE SHALL SEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE...BUT STILL SUSPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG WITH SEVERE
NOT BEING RULED OUT (BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
WITH LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET POSITION). PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH DID ADD FOG TO THE OFFSHORE AS WELL. CWF WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 10 PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SOUNDING JUST CAME IN WITH STRONG CAP (23.8C AT
850MB). THE 64K DOLLAR QUESTION IS WILL THIS CAP HOLD OR WILL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWFA (AND HOW FAR SOUTH). MESO-SCALE MODELS GIVE AREA A
BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (MORE STRONG) WITH SYNOPTIC MODELS
BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
BELIEVE AT THIS TIME IS THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MORNING...WITH CAP LIKELY HOLDING ENOUGH TO
PRECULDE STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER...WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME (SEEMS THAT EL-NINO CAN BRING SOME BONUS
CONVECTION AT TIMES). HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK
AT NEW MODEL DATA AND ADJUST ACCORINGLY/AS-NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING (KEPT POPS AS-IS OVERNIGHT)...BUT
ALSO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AS FOG IS
ALREADY FORMING (MAYBE COMBINATION OF HAZE AND FOG) SO HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST. DID NOT MESS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST YET.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

MARINE...INCLUDED FOG FOR THE COASTALS...AND WILL WRITE A MWS
CONCERNING FOG CONCERNS (AND IF WORSENS WILL ISSUE MWW...DENSE FOG
ADVIOSORY). WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCEC/SCA TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY RISE/FALL COUPLETS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD. IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR KCRP/KVCT/KALI. THICK HAZE WILL
EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRATUS
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR EASTERN HALF OF S TX. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PUSH SE ACROSS KLRD AOA 06Z AND REACH KALI/KCRP/KVCT
AROUND 09-11Z. CIGS AND VSBYS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SFC
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. SCT CONVECTION MAY DVLP TONIGHT ACROSS TX
HILL COUNTRY AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT /AHEAD OF BOUNDARY/ AND
IMPACT KVCT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS SUCH HAVE PROB30 FOR
CONVECTION IN TAF. KCRP/KLRD/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...FUTURE TAF PKGS/AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
CONVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KCRP/KALI. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC TROUGH RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF MON AND NW SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  66  77  56  75  /  30  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          84  62  74  52  74  /  50  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            90  64  78  56  80  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             89  64  78  55  77  /  30  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          80  66  74  59  73  /  40  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           88  61  77  52  78  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        87  65  79  56  77  /  30  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       81  67  75  61  73  /  30  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
459 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXZ229>234-239>247-271000-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
459 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. TONIGHT...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY WILL BE
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-271000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
459 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL AREA BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 9 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LK/TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
135 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

TXZ229-239-270700-
WEBB-LA SALLE-
135 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF STRONG WIND WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WEBB
AND LA SALLE COUNTIES...

AT 131 AM CDT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRECEDING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DEVINE TO DILLEY
TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CATARINA TO NEAR CHUPADERA RANCH
AIRPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA AFTER THE INITIAL AREA
OF STRONG WINDS PUSH THROUGH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COTULLA...CHUPADERA RANCH AIRPORT...GARDENDALE...LOS ANGELES...LAS
TIENDAS...MILLET...MILLETT...LA ESPERANZA RANCH AIRPORT...
FOWLERTON...ARTESIA WELLS AND WOODWARD.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2820 10007 2820 9940 2862 9940 2864 9936
      2865 9880 2843 9880 2840 9884 2814 9919
      2780 9979 2795 9994 2798 9993 2802 10001
      2815 10008 2816 10013
TIME...MOT...LOC 0631Z 311DEG 35KT 2911 9887 2869 9919 2842 9955 2816
10002

HART