Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON'T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  98  76  96  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74 100  74  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 103  78  /  20  20  10  10   0
ALICE             75 100  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  95  79  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 103  76  /  20  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  98  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  92  79  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
552 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-011100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
552 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
504 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TXZ245-246-312245-
REFUGIO-ARANSAS-
504 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ARANSAS AND EASTERN
REFUGIO COUNTIES...

AT 503 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ARANSAS NWR...OR 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEADRIFT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKPORT...LAMAR...HOLIDAY BEACH...ARANSAS NWR AND AUSTWELL.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2822 9681 2813 9691 2814 9691 2812 9696
      2819 9693 2822 9694 2827 9692 2822 9698
      2822 9697 2819 9695 2812 9698 2815 9703
      2820 9701 2816 9712 2815 9712 2826 9722
      2848 9695 2836 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 048DEG 21KT 2831 9689

HART