River Flood Warning 29, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR REMOVAL OF
WATCHES...BUT DID MENTION IN WCN OF SUPERCELL IN EASTERN WEBB
COUNTY WHICH COULD IMPACT BRUSH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING ON-GOING CONVECTION NOT TO IMPACT
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER TERMINALS...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME OVER EASTERN TERMINALS...
EXCEPT AM EXPECTING IFR AT KVCT BEFORE 12Z DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS. DID
PUT IN VCSH IN KCRP OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION COMING FROM
THE GULFMEX. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH
A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS (PROB30 OR TEMPO) AT KVCT AND KCRP. AM
EXPECTING VFR AFTER 19Z ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WITH
SE WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON (MORE THAN 11 KNOTS) AND
BEING GUSTY AT KCRP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DID EXTEND THE TOR WATCH FOR WESTERN FOUR COUNTIES UNTIL
6 PM BASED ON RADAR AND COORDINATION WITH SPC. CONCERNING
FLOODING...MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS MOVING INTO AREAS
WHERE MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN (DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...WORKED OVER
ATMOSPHERE ETC.) WILL NOT EXTEND THE FFA FOR THE WESTERN FOUR
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC...HAVE EXTENDED THE
TORNADO WATCH 169 TO INCLUDE LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES THROUGH 6
PM. OTHER REMAINDER OF WATCH REMAINS THE SAME AT THIS TIME.
PRODUCT UPDATE ISSUED SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...RADAR IS SHOWING RAIN IS TAPERING OFF SO
FFA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MODEL GUIDANCE (4 KM AND SYNOPTIC)
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST
WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE. IMPACTS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS FOR TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH TAPERING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING FARTHER
EAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT WITH
GOOD CONVERGENCE AREA AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION. LOWS NEAR 70
NORTH AND LOWER 70S SOUTH AND EAST.

MARINE...EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTION...NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS COULD GET TO SCEC
TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THU WITH S TX BETWEEN DISTURBANCES AND DRIER MID LEVELS
FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STILL
LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS LESS QPF FOR FRIDAY THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH 30-50 POPS FOR FRIDAY. A BROAD LOW
ACROSS THE W CONUS WILL KEEP S TX UNDER A SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS PROGD TO LIFT NE TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MON BUT IS FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER
LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE W COAST. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE
ROCKIES BY MON...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING ITS BASE ACROSS S TX...THUS KEEPING S TX IN A WET PATTERN
INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  86  75  84  76  /  40  30  10  40  20
VICTORIA          72  86  72  83  74  /  30  40  10  50  20
LAREDO            72  91  73  90  74  /  20  20  30  40  20
ALICE             73  88  73  86  74  /  20  30  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          75  85  76  82  77  /  40  20  10  40  10
COTULLA           70  89  71  87  72  /  40  20  40  40  20
KINGSVILLE        74  88  75  86  75  /  30  30  10  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       73  83  76  82  77  /  40  20  10  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
629 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF SOUTH TEXAS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANY PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...PLEASE ALERT THE CORPUS CHRISTI NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH MAY
HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

GW/RH/TB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXZ229-239-132130-
WEBB-LA SALLE-
349 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WEBB AND
SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...

AT 347 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ENCINAL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ENCINAL.

LAT...LON 2790 9935 2798 9943 2817 9929 2802 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 227DEG 8KT 2800 9934

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
410 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 SE VICTORIA           28.77N 96.92W
05/13/2015                   VICTORIA           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE MARSHALL IN VICTORIA REPORTED BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD
            NEAR VICTORIA AIRPORT FM 1686 AND GIN ROAD. BRIEFLY
            TOUCHED DOWN FOR ABOUT 30 SECONDS THEN WENT BACK UP.

&&

GWILK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
443 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXZ239-132215-
WEBB-
443 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

AT 442 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 12 MILES EAST OF
CALLAGHAN...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENCINAL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL WEBB
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 2778 9933 2789 9935 2795 9916 2794 9905
      2780 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 247DEG 32KT 2787 9919

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TORNADO          20 SW FREER             27.68N 98.85W
05/13/2015                   WEBB               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN...BUT BASE IS STILL ROTATING

&&

DVOGELSA

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