Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMED NEAR COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND SPREADING INLAND A LITTLE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR VSBYS WITHIN
HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THIS REGION. KEPT A MENTION OF TSRA IN LRD TAF THROUGH
06Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH THE CONVECTION BUT
COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS
WILL RETURN TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS BY 09Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR
CIGS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
2.3 INCHES. SPEED CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT FORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCHES IN
AN HOUR. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS THROUGH 7 PM. GOES SOUNDER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS
DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. THINK THAT THIS LOWER THETA-E AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING AND REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES. SCENARIO IS DIFFERENT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SOUTH OF MCALLEN. HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/SREF ALL TAKE
THIS FEATURE UP THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD LAREDO THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS...ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE
2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS TO 5 OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY. SO WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BRUSH
COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  78  90  77  89  /  40  20  20  20  40
VICTORIA          86  75  87  74  88  /  50  20  30  20  40
LAREDO            92  77  92  76  93  /  60  60  20  30  40
ALICE             89  75  92  76  92  /  50  50  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          87  78  87  79  88  /  40  20  20  20  40
COTULLA           91  74  90  75  90  /  60  60  30  30  40
KINGSVILLE        89  76  91  77  91  /  40  20  30  20  40
NAVY CORPUS       87  80  87  79  88  /  40  20  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DUVAL...JIM WELLS...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     WEBB.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

TMT/89...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1058 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

GMZ230-235-TXZ229>234-239>247-190000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-LA SALLE-
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1058 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE COASTAL BEND
AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE BRUSH COUNTRY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN 1 INCH ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY...STANDING WATER IN FIELDS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS
AND DITCHES WILL RESULT IN ANY RAINFALL TO BRING RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
ISOLATED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND VERY SMALL
HAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY OVER
GULF-FACING BEACHES DUE TO HIGH PERIOD SWELLS AND SUSTAINED
ONSHORE FLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL BEND. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ250-255-270-275-190000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1058 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TMT/GW/MB