Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

966 
WGUS74 KCRP 221616
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TXC007-221625-
/O.EXP.KCRP.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-150522T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ARANSAS TX-
1116 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ARANSAS COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNED AREA AND FLOOD 
WATERS HAVE RECEDED SOME. IF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
REDEVELOP OR PERSIST...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE 
REQUIRED.

LAT...LON 2822 9681 2821 9683 2819 9681 2820 9684
      2817 9687 2815 9688 2814 9691 2815 9691
      2812 9696 2819 9693 2822 9694 2826 9691
      2827 9691 2825 9694 2827 9693 2826 9694
      2830 9695 2832 9680

$$

HART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LRD AND VCT TAF SITES CURRENTLY AT IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT OTHER SITES REMAIN MVFR...EXPECT LRD AND VCT TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BEFORE LONG. SHOULD SEE MOST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DECREASE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT
TERM PERIOD COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND WAS IS
POTENTIALLY TO COME LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HAVE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF...AND
HELPED BY WEAK SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TODAY. COMBINE THIS BOUNDARY...THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
WE SHOULD GET SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. NOT
REALLY EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS AND COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED ENOUGH TODAY TO NOT WARRANT A WATCH.

EXPECT A DECREASE IN CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
STILL HIGH NEAR THE COAST AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STREAMER
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONVECTION IN MEXICO IS LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT SHOULD AGAIN STAY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE) AFFECTING THE CWA/MSA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC DEPICT WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE
ERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/UPPER
FORCING AND A MEANDERING SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH (GFS DETERMINISTIC AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF) WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STG 0-6KM VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STG/SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY...CONSISTENT
WITH SLGT RISK FOR SVR FROM SPC. FLASH FLOODING IS ANOTHER THREAT
OWING TO ALREADY WET/NEAR SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS/LOW FLASH FLOOD
THRESHOLDS. A TRANSITON TO DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
NEAR NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH
(GFS DETERMINISTIC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF) SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  74  85  77  84  /  40  20  30  40  60
VICTORIA          84  73  84  75  82  /  40  20  40  40  70
LAREDO            89  74  90  74  89  /  40  20  30  50  50
ALICE             87  74  86  76  87  /  40  10  40  40  60
ROCKPORT          85  76  85  78  82  /  40  30  30  40  60
COTULLA           87  73  87  72  86  /  40  20  50  60  60
KINGSVILLE        88  74  87  77  86  /  40  10  30  40  60
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  84  78  82  /  40  30  30  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PZ/83...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
526 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-231030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
526 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OF FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED FLASH
FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PZ/WC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
838 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 ESE TEXAS AM UNIVERSI 27.69N 97.29W
05/21/2015  M42 MPH          NUECES             TX   ASOS

            MEASURED AT KNGP

&&

HART