Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
419 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CWA. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG...AND THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE CASE AS THIS CONVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST INTO EVEN MORE MOIST AIR. WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BETWEEN THETA E AND WIND
ANALYSES...APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND PLEASANTON.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD ERODE THE CAP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND FAIR SHEAR ALONG WITH CAPE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. EXPECT AN ISOLATED NATURE OF STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE THAT
STALLS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION WEAKEN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE WASHED OUT WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL SHUNT MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO AREA THURSDAY SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PWAT VALUES AMONGST
MODELS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW PWATS PEAKING TO
1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS AND THE UPPER JET STREAK NUDGING NORTH FROM
THE WEST WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
BE LIKE AN INTERESTING DAY AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE AND RANGE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG. MODELS DO VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A 10-20 KT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO EXIST. THIS ALL COMBINED COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR SOUTH TEXAS. BETTER CHANCES FOR
THE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AREAS WHERE BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION EXISTS. THIS SAID...SPC HAS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH RESPECT OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING
FROM THE TROUGH...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD FRIDAY. GFS CONTINUES
TO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY DRYING THINGS COMPLETELY
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE EURO/CANADIAN AND IMPLICATIONS
FROM THE NAM TEND TO SHOW A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. WITH
DIFFERENCES EVEN BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES...WILL CONTINUE TO GO FOR
A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CHANCES
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE BY SUNDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  68  81  70  80  /  60  30  30  20  50
VICTORIA          81  65  81  67  78  /  50  30  30  20  50
LAREDO            84  66  86  70  86  /  40  20  20  20  40
ALICE             83  67  84  69  83  /  50  30  30  20  50
ROCKPORT          80  69  78  71  76  /  60  30  30  20  50
COTULLA           83  64  84  68  82  /  30  20  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        82  67  83  70  82  /  60  30  30  20  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  70  78  71  77  /  60  30  30  20  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
518 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
518 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCUR WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED TODAY AND THIS EVENING THAN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY AND/OR
PREDICTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
SATURATED SOILS AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED FLOODING BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GW/CB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
214 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

TXZ229-230-140800-
MCMULLEN-LA SALLE-
214 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING WESTERN MCMULLEN AND EAST CENTRAL
LA SALLE COUNTIES...

AT 212 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 10 MILES SOUTH OF LOS
ANGELES...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COTULLA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN MCMULLEN
AND EAST CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI .

LAT...LON 2822 9903 2840 9904 2845 9869 2818 9869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 268DEG 16KT 2832 9895

PZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

TXZ230-231-140845-
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-
300 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCMULLEN AND WEST
CENTRAL LIVE OAK COUNTIES...

AT 300 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TILDEN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHOKE CANYON...TILDEN...SIMMONS AND CALLIHAM.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2829 9871 2844 9872 2855 9824 2828 9822
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 264DEG 23KT 2837 9863

PZ