Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

349 
WGUS74 KCRP 132308
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
608 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

TXC025-297-140015-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150414T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BEE TX-LIVE OAK TX-
608 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL BEE AND SOUTHERN LIVE OAK COUNTIES...

AT 607 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WARNING AREA 
SHORTLY. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 2859 9776 2842 9764 2810 9815 2819 9824
      2832 9833

$$

TB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
411 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST/INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH CAN RETARD CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/UPDRAFT STRENGTH. YET...MID LEVEL DRYING AND STG 0-6KM
VERTICAL SHEAR COULD GENERATE STG SFC WIND GUSTS/STG
UPDRAFTS...RESPECTIVELY. (APPARENT SUPERCELL CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH
OF WEBB COUNTY.) YET KEEP FCST OF 20/30 POPS FOR THIS EVENING
GIVEN THE LIKELY AREAL COVERAGE. TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE PLAINS) IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE CWA TUESDAY. THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW WL LIFT NEWD YET
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CWA/MSA.
FURTHER ASCENT OVER THE CWA/MSA DUE TO AN UPPER JET APPROACHING
FROM NRN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER FORCING
SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LOCALLY-
HEAVY RAINFALL/ISOLD FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...PWAT VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (1.3-1.5 INCHES).
THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING IN OVER
THE REGION.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT FROM AROUND
THE STRONG CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO NEAR MAX VALUES ON THURSDAY. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...EXPECT
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
ANTICIPATE THURSDAY COULD BRING HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
REGION WITH SUCH ELEVATED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED...SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY IN HANDLING
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ENDING RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILLS
INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LOW...AND KEEPS ELEVATED MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH NO FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  AT THIS TIME
LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS AS IT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT IN
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT DID COMPROMISE
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING SOME MENTIONABLE POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY.

NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP BY A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT DURING THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  67  82  70  /  30  60  30  40  20
VICTORIA          68  80  65  81  66  /  30  50  30  40  30
LAREDO            67  84  66  87  70  /  30  40  20  20  20
ALICE             68  82  66  85  68  /  30  50  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          70  77  68  79  71  /  20  60  30  40  30
COTULLA           65  82  63  85  67  /  20  30  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        69  82  67  84  70  /  30  60  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       70  77  68  78  71  /  20  60  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
518 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
518 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCUR WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED TODAY AND THIS EVENING THAN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY AND/OR
PREDICTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
SATURATED SOILS AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED FLOODING BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GW/CB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
457 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

TXZ231>233-132230-
GOLIAD-BEE-LIVE OAK-
457 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GOLIAD...CENTRAL
BEE AND CENTRAL LIVE OAK COUNTIES...

AT 455 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RIVER CREEK ACRES...OR
9 MILES EAST OF GEORGE WEST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEEVILLE...BERCLAIR...RIVER CREEK ACRES...TULETA...PETTUS...
MINERAL...NORMANNA AND KARON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2839 9746 2824 9803 2837 9813 2870 9774
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 241DEG 16KT 2837 9797

TB