Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

891 
WGUS74 KCRP 120128 RRA
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
828 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

TXC479-120138-
/O.EXP.KCRP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150412T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEBB TX-
828 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 830 PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 2745 9950 2747 9948 2749 9948 2750 9950
      2750 9953 2755 9952 2757 9951 2758 9953
      2761 9954 2761 9957 2767 9936 2751 9931
      2742 9949

$$

PZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
406 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE
NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER JET STREAK WL ENTER THE
CWA/MSA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND COPIOUS MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS) SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA
CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS PROGD TO PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH REGARD TO STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION...SELECTED NAM SOUNDINGS DEPICT BRN VALUES NEAR THE
SUPERCELLULAR RANGE DRG THE PERIOD. FURTHER...0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT DRG THE PERIOD. NOTWITHSTANDING THE
FACT THAT 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR CAN PROVIDE STORM VERTICAL
VELOCITIES BEYOND WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED VIA CAPE...CAPE VALUES THIS
EVENING/TNGT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG YET AROUND 2500
J/KG SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THUS...MORE CONFIDENT IN THE POSSIBILITY
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT/ SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SATURATED WARM 0-4KM LAYER AND
STATISTICALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES...0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR AND LACK OF
A SFC BNDRY MAY PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE INDICATING
UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN TEXAS MONDAY. HIGH PWAT
VALUES (NEAR 1.8-1.9 INCHES) WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS NEXT CLOSED LOW DIVES IN BEHIND THIS
FIRST SYSTEM...AND CONTINUED IMPULSES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND A JET
STREAK NOSING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL
SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WRT FROPA...WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE TIMING OF PRECIP ENDING. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE DRY
CONDITION TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  79  71  82  69  /  50  50  70  50  20
VICTORIA          69  77  69  81  67  /  60  60  80  50  20
LAREDO            70  83  68  89  69  /  60  40  70  20  10
ALICE             70  81  69  85  68  /  50  50  80  40  20
ROCKPORT          71  76  71  77  71  /  50  60  70  50  20
COTULLA           68  81  66  86  65  /  60  50  70  30  10
KINGSVILLE        71  81  71  85  70  /  50  50  70  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       72  76  71  78  71  /  50  50  70  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
501 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-121015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
501 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. PERSISTENT SCATTERED RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY AND/OR PREDICTABILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CB/GW