Flash Flood Warning 117, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
117 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...RECORD PWAT VALUES OF 2.46 INCHES (AIDED BY A
PACIFIC TAP FROM REMNANT PATRICIA MOISTURE) ALONG WITH A DEEP
WARM LAYER WILL MAXIMIZE WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX. STRONG
FORCING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND A MID/UPR SW/V TROUGH AXIS
ANCHORED FROM NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FURTHER SET
THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SURGE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY A 3-4 MB PRESSURE RISES UPSTREAM. THE
LATEST 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A SFC LOW AROUND 1007 MB
WAS LKLY FORMING JUST NORTH OF ALICE. THIS SFC LOW AND ASSCTD
FRONT WL SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT AS THEY NEAR THE COAST BUT WL STILL
LKLY BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FASTER 12Z GFS SOLN. EITHER
WAY...THIS WL TEND TO REFOCUS THE MAIN HVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH ONGOING MDT-HVY RAIN ACROSS AREAS FURTHER WEST...WL CONTINUE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW ACROSS THESE AREAS. DID END THE FFA
AROUND 7 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE PRIOR FCST PACKAGE GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

WENT WITH A WIND ADVY FOR THE GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE ERN AREAS. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY SINCE ESTOFS INDICATES THAT TIDAL INCREASES
WL ONLY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 2-2.5 FT MSL FOR MOST AREAS AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER TO AVOID CONFUSION AND THE FACT THAT A FEW
AREAS MAY GET CLOSE TO 3 FT MSL AT THE HIGH TIDE TNT...WL CONTINUE
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR NOW.

MARGINAL CAPE AND MODERATE BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY GIN UP A SHORT-
LIVED TORNADO ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING PER SPCS SLIGHT RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. CEILINGS WL TEND TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TO DRY THE LOW LVLS OUT.
THE RAIN WL GRADUALLY END BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS LRD...ALI AND
CRP BY MIDNIGHT...AND VCT BY SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...MAINTAINED THE CURRENT SCA FOR TDA AND GALE WARNING TNT.
GALE WARNING CRITERIA WL MOSTLY BE MET WITH THE GUSTS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW/FRONT. SEAS WL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 11-13
FT TMW MORNING AS A RESULT. A GRADUAL LOWERING OF WINDS/SEAS IS
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  69  77  64  78  / 100 100  30  20  10
VICTORIA          76  67  73  61  75  / 100 100  50  20  20
LAREDO            79  63  76  61  78  / 100  40  20  10  10
ALICE             80  67  76  62  78  / 100  90  30  20  10
ROCKPORT          81  69  75  66  75  / 100 100  40  20  20
COTULLA           76  64  76  59  78  / 100  40  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        81  69  77  63  78  / 100 100  30  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  70  77  67  76  / 100 100  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR.

&&

MB/80

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
540 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ229>234-239>247-251045-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
540 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A MARGINAL
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL BEND
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL
OVERFLOW AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL BEND INTO VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED ALONG GULF
FACING BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-251045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
540 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS...COASTAL WATERS...AND
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH SEAS AND STRONG
WINDS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS...COASTAL WATERS...AND
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTS...
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
THEREAFTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
133 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ORANGE GROVE            27.96N 97.94W
10/24/2015  6.00 INCH        JIM WELLS          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
            INCHES AT ORANGE GROVE.

&&

ANIEVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
234 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SAN DIEGO               27.76N 98.24W
10/24/2015                   DUVAL              TX   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ON THE STREETS OF SAN DIEGO.

&&

ANIEVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
343 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE ROBSTOWN           27.85N 97.62W
10/24/2015                   NUECES             TX   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING IN CALALLEN PER PHOTOS.

&&

ANIEVES

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