Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
UP THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TOWARDS GEAUGA AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES. A
WATERSPOUT WAS EVEN REPORTED ALONG THE LAKE COUNTY SHORELINE
AROUND 645 PM AS ONE OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL THE WAY WEST TO
TOLEDO AS THE ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN CROSSES LAKE
ERIE TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO. SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS NE OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER S/W WILL RAPIDLY DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT TO AID
THE THREAT FOR SCT LAKE ENHANCED SHRA. THE VORT MAX TRACK WITH
THIS FEATURE IS SE THRU THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. THE MODELS HAVE
VARYING AMOUNTS OF LIGHT QPF ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. ALSO...THE COLD AIR ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS BUT WON'T MENTION
THIS DUE TO THE OVERALL SMALL CHANCE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SE OF THE AREA BY 09Z
SO THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SHRA SHOULD SHRINK BACK TO MOSTLY
JUST THE EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY 12Z WHERE THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ALONG WITH ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PRESENCE IN THE EAST FOR A FEW SHRA ON
WED. THIS THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END WED EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH EVEN DRIER AIR AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AT 850 MB TO
START LESSENING THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. A BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PRECIP TRIES TO SPREAD SE TOWARD THE AREA LATE
WED NIGHT BUT THINK THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU...IF IT DOES OCCUR
AT ALL DUE TO MARGINAL MOISTURE. WED NIGHT WILL BE A SEASONALLY COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO A RANGE FROM 49 TO 56 DEGREES
FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WHERE A LITTLE MORE WIND WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION NEAR LAKE ERIE LATER THU WILL
INCREASE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA. WILL STAY WITH THE PLAN OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THU THRU FRI FROM THE S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
MORE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE WEAK FRONT APPEARS TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL
OHIO ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS POST SMALL
QPF ON SUNDAY AND I SUPPOSE THE STALLED FRONT MAY STILL BE NEAR BY
BUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS OTHER THAN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS AND ODDS WOULD
FAVOR DRY WEATHER.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT
RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AND TRIES TO SAG INTO THE AREA. WE HAVE A LOW
POP IN THE FORECAST AND GIVEN THE GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD
EARLY IN THE WEEK. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT POTENTIALLY COULD BE
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BRINGING IN MVFR CEILINGS TO MANY TAF SITES...
PROGRESSING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MY THINKING IS THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL REACH ERI AND CLE AROUND 08Z AND MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
INLAND TAF SITES BY 10Z OR SO. BY LATE MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING CEILINGS TO RETURN VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY  INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE. NOT SURE IF THE WIND INCREASE WILL
BE ENOUGH T0 PUSH THE WIND AND WAVES ABOUT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT
IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL INCLUDE WAVES AT LEAST 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE
FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO OVER THE
WEEKEND AND WINDS WILL LIKELY COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR A
WHILE THIS WEEKEND BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE
ONSHORE/OFFSHORE FLOW MAY DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KOSARIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-120830-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-120830-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     WATER SPOUT      2 WNW WILLOWICK         41.65N 81.50W
08/11/2015                   LEZ146             OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED OFF OF LAKE COUNTY.

&&

CLARK

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