Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION EVEN AS IT PUSHES
EAST TODAY. THE SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS PULLING
IN SOME WARM/MOIST AIR. MEANWHILE H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
RISE ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF HIGHER THETA-E CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
THE LAKE. A TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT AROUND H500 WITH NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION. SOME MORNING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MICHIGAN ARE KEEPING SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN SW
FLOW. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT H850 COULD BE THE MAIN INHIBITOR
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY CONTINUE TO
WARM.HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE LAKE. BY THIS EVENING A TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  BOTH GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON
THE CONVECTION LATELY SO JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED WORDING.  THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY SO
WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA BY SUNDAY USHERING IN HOT BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THIS MODEL RUN AS WEAK PERTURBATION MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES BUT REMAINS FURTHER NORTH COMPARED
TO YESTERDAYS RUN AT THIS TIME. THIS KEEPS UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE
ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND COULD HELP FOCUS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST AREA BEING IN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP WELL INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. IF WARM AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH...I MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE AREA THIS EVENING
BUT STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND MOST LIKELY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. PATCHY
MVFR FOG/HAZE AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS DEW POINTS WILL BE
HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY DAYBREAK FOG/HAZE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST UP THE LAKE AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES. HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD BE OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. CANT
RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL MAX WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET ESPECIALLY WELL
EAST OF CLEVELAND. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET STREAM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS/LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
420 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-150930-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
420 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-150930-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
420 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.