Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2015

Lake Effect Snow Warning 3, NWS Cleveland, OH

December 17, 2015Ashtabula County, Ohio; Crawford County, Erie County, Pennsylvania

NWS Cleveland, OH issued this lake effect snow warning at Dec 17, 2015, 2:08 PM EST for Ashtabula County, Ohio; Crawford County, Erie County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Dec 18, 2015, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 23 hr. 37 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 17, 2015, 2:08 PM EST (19:08 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 18, 2015, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 19, 2015, 3:12 PM EST
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Cleveland, OH

Counties Ashtabula County, OH, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 19, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.76 Sw Erie, PA24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.76 Sw Erie, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 51 Ne Conneaut Lake, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.51 Ne Conneaut Lake, PA24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 123 Wnw Springboro, PA24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 123 Wnw Springboro, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 8:58 AM ESTSNOW 6.7Ashtabula, OH12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 8:58 AM ESTSNOW 7Ashtabula, OHSNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:01 AM ESTSNOW 3.5Millcreek Twp, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:01 AM ESTSNOW 4Millcreek Twp, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:02 AM ESTSNOW 3.8Conneaut I-90, OH12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:02 AM ESTSNOW 5.9Conneaut I-90, OHSNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:03 AM ESTSNOW 8Canadohta Lake, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:03 AM ESTSNOW 8Canadohta Lake, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:05 AM ESTSNOW 3.5Amity Twp, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:05 AM ESTSNOW 3.5Amity Twp, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:05 AM ESTSNOW 6.5Conneautville 6sw, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:05 AM ESTSNOW 6.5Conneautville 6sw, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:08 AM ESTSNOW 10Pierpont 2se, OH12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:08 AM ESTSNOW 10Pierpont 2se, OHSNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:09 AM ESTSNOW 5.8Jefferson, OH12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:09 AM ESTSNOW 5.8Jefferson, OHSNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:10 AM ESTSNOW 5Northeast 6sw, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:10 AM ESTSNOW 6Northeast 6sw, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:11 AM ESTSNOW 4.5Meadville 5w, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:11 AM ESTSNOW 4.5Meadville 5w, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:11 AM ESTSNOW 8.52 Nw Edinboro, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:11 AM ESTSNOW 8.52 Nw Edinboro, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:14 AM ESTSNOW 2Erie Airport, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:16 AM ESTSNOW 12Springbor 3nw, PA24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:16 AM ESTSNOW 12Springbor 3nw, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:48 AM ESTSNOW 5Colt Station, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:48 AM ESTSNOW 6Colt Station, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:49 AM ESTSNOW 8Corry, PA12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:49 AM ESTSNOW 8Corry, PASNOW DEPTH.
Dec 19, 9:50 AM ESTSNOW 5Geneva, OH12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 19, 9:50 AM ESTSNOW 5Geneva, OHSNOW DEPTH.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2015-12-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2015-12-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 207 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
207 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
244 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

285 
WWUS41 KCLE 171908
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
208 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...

PAZ001-002-180315-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.A.0003.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.LE.W.0003.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
208 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY. 

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY LATE
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY 
  MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

OHZ012-014-089-PAZ003-180315-
/O.NEW.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MENTOR...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...
MEADVILLE
208 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY. 

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY LATE
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

GARNET
8 follow-up statements
884 
WWUS41 KCLE 180237
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
937 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...

PAZ001-002-181200-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0003.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
937 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY LATE 
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE 
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY 
  MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

OHZ012-014-089-PAZ003-181200-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MENTOR...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...
MEADVILLE
937 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY
TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY LATE 
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE 
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
153 
WWUS41 KCLE 180915
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...

PAZ001-002-181715-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0003.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
415 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
  AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
  TO END SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
  THUNDERSNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

OHZ012-014-089-PAZ003-181715-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MENTOR...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...
MEADVILLE
415 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
  AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
  TO END SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
732 
WWUS41 KCLE 181558
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1058 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...

PAZ001-002-190000-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0003.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
1058 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
  BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START
  TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT WITH
  AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ON SATURDAY. 

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
  WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THUNDERSNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES
  TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY WEST TO EAST
  ORIENTED BAND TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
  MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN PLACEMENT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

OHZ012-014-089-PAZ003-190000-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MENTOR...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...
MEADVILLE
1058 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
  EVENING. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
  MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
  SATURDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
799 
WWUS41 KCLE 182045
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

PAZ001-002-190445-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0003.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
345 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
  BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE DECREASE
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT WITH
  AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES ON SATURDAY.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
  WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
  TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY WEST TO EAST
  ORIENTED BAND TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
  MORNING ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT.

* WEST...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

OHZ012-014-089-PAZ003-190445-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.151218T2100Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MENTOR...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...
MEADVILLE
345 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
  DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INLAND. A
  WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
  WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
  ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT. SNOW WILL
  TAPER OFF FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
597 
WWUS41 KCLE 190223
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

PAZ001-002-191030-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
923 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
  SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT. SNOW
  WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT WITH
  AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES ON SATURDAY. 

* WEST...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

OHZ012-014-089-PAZ003-191030-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MENTOR...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...
MEADVILLE
923 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
  MORNING THEN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
  SATURDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
365 
WWUS41 KCLE 190739
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
239 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OHZ014-089-PAZ003-191545-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KCLE.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...MEADVILLE
239 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
  MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
  BANDS PERSIST WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

PAZ001-002-191545-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
239 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
  THE MORNING. THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL
  GRADUALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES.

* WEST...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
  BANDS PERSIST AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR. DRIFTING AND
  BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

OHZ012-191545-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MENTOR
239 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
  MORNING THEN WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
002 
WWUS41 KCLE 191514
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1014 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-192315-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...
EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
1014 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...OCCASIONAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
  LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
  SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

OHZ012-192315-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MENTOR
1014 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
  MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  BANDS PERSIST. VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND 
  UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
196 
WWUS41 KCLE 192012
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-192115-
/O.CAN.KCLE.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...
EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
312 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THEREFORE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERIE COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA.

$$

OHZ012-192115-
/O.CAN.KCLE.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151220T0300Z/
LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MENTOR
312 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Dec 17, 12:10 PM EST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 12:10 PM EST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1210 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OHIO BY SATURDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST SUNDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MICHIGAN MONDAY PULLING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST QUICKLY AND MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. I WILL DECREASE
THE POPS OVER THE EAST ENDING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE.
READINGS WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD NEAR CURRENT VALUES OR DROP
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THIS TREND.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THAT IS OVER THE CWA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR NW PA COUNTIES BY 18Z TAKING THE
THREAT FOR RAIN EAST OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT LATE IN
THE DAY SO A FEW SHRA COULD LINGER NEAR ERIE INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE A WARMER START TO THE DAY WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA IN THE SNOWBELT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS STAYS FAIRLY DRY
UNTIL A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRI AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND EVEN COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE
LITTLE OR NONE THRU FRI MORNING THEN INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI NIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT PEAK OUT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
THEN START TO DECREASE SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT...SO THINK SUN
HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO END UP BEING DRY...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY.
INITIAL GUESS IS FOR 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN ERIE CO
PA FOR THE 24 HOURS FROM LATE FRI INTO SAT AFTERNOON WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SNOWBELT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
BUF...HAVE AGREED TO PUT UP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR LATE FRI
THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM RACES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN
SUN NIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOWN BY THE MODELS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK MON. WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONG ENOUGH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUN NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WHERE ANY
PRECIP OCCURS...SO EXPECT JUST RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESS OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. STILL NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH AND
EAST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
SNEAKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING.
THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS FASTEST AND THE OTHER
MODELS SLOWER. AND WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERIC CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

WE MAY FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NOT SURE ABOUT THE TIMING YET AND
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE UNCERTAIN AS
WELL...IT WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE COOLER BEING ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONT BUT THE AIR MASS IS NOT COLD. THE FORECAST WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. NOT BAD WEATHER TO GET THE LAST MINUTE
CHRISTMAS PREPARATIONS COMPLETED.

IT CERTAINLY WOULD SEEM THAT THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE BACK BY WEDNESDAY
AS THE FRONT COMES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE NEXT WEAK COLD
FRONT SEEMS DESTINED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS AT YNG/ERI THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS CORRIDOR WILL BRING A FEW HOURS
OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CAK/YNG THOUGH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL
PRECLUDE VFR CONDITIONS AT ERI. CEILINGS WITH THE WRAP AROUND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HINT
THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN CLEARING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS TOWARDS END
OF FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEY AREN'T HANDLING THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM
WELL SO HAVE KEPT MVFR PREDOMINANT THROUGHOUT ALL SITES. FRIDAY WEST
AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25KT. SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
IN TOL/ERI/CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THRU SAT NIGHT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NON VFR AGAIN
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THIS MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
NORTHERN LAKES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP
A SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING 20 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH IT TURN
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES (4 FEET
OR MORE) OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE.

THERE MAY BE A SHORT LULL IN THE WIND AND WAVES LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BUT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
LATER FRIDAY. STRONGER WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE REISSUED OR EXTENDED ON FRIDAY. THE
STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...THEN LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST FOR A SHORT TIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE THE SOUTH WIND INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ144>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...KOSARIK
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 17, 5:31 AM EST, 8 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
531 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
181045-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-
SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
531 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ012>014-089-PAZ003-181045-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD PA-
531 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ001-002-181045-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
531 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Cleveland, OH issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 17, 4:17 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryCLE65 hr
Dec 17, 2:08 PM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryCLEAshtabula, Lake49 hr
Dec 17, 3:48 AM ESTLake Effect Snow WatchCLEErie10 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2015Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Ohio, 2015Every lake effect snow warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.