Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATCHING MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN MI/NRN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER. WARM FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS
THE LAKE...NORTH OF ERIE PA...WHERE IT WILL LINGER FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH HIGH PW AIR CONTINUALLY BEING PUMPED INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES AS WELL...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND LESS
THAN OPTIMAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE TONED THAT DOWN SOME.
STILL THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KNOTS
EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH HAIL/TORNADOES SECONDARY.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE NE OH/NW PA HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AREAS EAST OF CLEVELAND HAVE HAD A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
LOWER/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE SHORT/MID TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE PREVALENT AGAIN
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH AS WELL AND
AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THERE MAY
SOMEWHAT LESS THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS BEGIN TO BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHIFTING BACK NORTH
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND
CHANGE OF AIR MASS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
SOME MID 70S NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY.  BOTH
MODELS NOW MOVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OF THE 2 MODELS...BUT TREND IS THE
SAME.  AFTER THIS THE MODELS DIVERGE.   GFS BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE ECMWF KEEP HIGH
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVES LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  FOR
NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN AS THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z. HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO ACCOMOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. A PERIOD OF
RAIN MAY LINGER TONIGHT AS THE THUNDERSTORMS START TO DECREASE.
MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR 10-13Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON
MONDAY TO HIGH MVFR/VFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR MON THRU THU WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE LAKE FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKE AGAIN. LINGERING CHANCE OF TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-151800-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
157 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO BE SPECIFIC BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN OHIO OR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EACH DAY THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LEZ061-151800-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
157 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO BE SPECIFIC BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN OHIO OR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EACH DAY THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.