Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A WEAK TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW...SETTING UP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A H5
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS NEAR 1.9 INCHES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A SMALL
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. WE HAVE SEEN SOME STABILIZATION DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS...BUT OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION
ALONG WITH AREAS THAT ARE STILL SEEING SUN SHOULD HELP INITIATE
AND/OR STRENGTHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SBCAPES
RANGE BETWEEN 2500-3000 J/KG. DCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 800-1000 J/KG
ALONG WITH INVERTED V MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LIKE PREVIOUS
DAYS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST WITH SUNSET. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS TODAY.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHIFTS NEAR/OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR OR
TWO OF SUNSET...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. A POTENT MULTI-LAYER RIDGE WILL
BUILD WEST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO A MORE STANDARD EARLY SUMMER CONVECTIVE REGIME
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY: MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE MID-RANGE
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND EJECTS OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW A DEEP 500 HPA TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
AS A LARGE...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT LEVELS OF
MOISTURE... INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE SIGNALS THAT AN ENHANCED AREA OF UPPER DIFLUENCE COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MEANDERS EAST/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT 50-60 PERCENT POPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MLCAPE AND
DCAPE...BUT LEVELS ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REDEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S INLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEAN RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE REGION REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK PLENTIFUL...WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS LOW-END
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH. 20-30 PERCENT
POPS LOOK REASONABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 70S
INLAND WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...THEN THERE IS MORE
DISCREPANCY/FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUCH TEMPS AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 18-22Z AT CHS AND
19-21Z AT SAV FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS...BUT
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD DUE TO NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 KT...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AT NIGHT WITH
WEAK NOCTURNAL SURGING AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT. BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047-052-062000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
353 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH 8 PM. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AND MINOR
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.

PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

SCZ048>051-062000-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
353 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH 8 PM. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AND MINOR
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.

PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
432 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GAZ100-101-052100-
EFFINGHAM GA-BULLOCH GA-
432 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH AND EFFINGHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GUYTON...OR 9 MILES WEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...GUYTON...STILSON...EGYPT...STILLWELL...SHAWNEE AND
PINEORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8153 3239 8161 3255 8136 3236 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 235DEG 26KT 3236 8147

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