Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Charleston, SC

114 
WWUS52 KCHS 022317
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
617 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAC031-043-109-267-022345-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-151102T2345Z/
BULLOCH GA-CANDLER GA-TATTNALL GA-EVANS GA-
617 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EST
FOR BULLOCH...CANDLER...TATTNALL AND EVANS COUNTIES...

AT 616 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF
REIDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAGAN...COLLINS...COBBTOWN...PULASKI...BELLVILLE AND MANASSAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

REPORT DAMAGE DIRECTLY TO THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-888-383-2024 WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 8192 3219 8181 3212 8216 3218 8218
      3226 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 244DEG 24KT 3221 8211 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RFM

036 
WWUS52 KCHS 022342
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
642 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAC031-043-109-267-022351-
/O.EXP.KCHS.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-151102T2345Z/
BULLOCH GA-CANDLER GA-TATTNALL GA-EVANS GA-
642 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BULLOCH...CANDLER...TATTNALL
AND EVANS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EST...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3240 8192 3219 8181 3212 8216 3218 8218
      3226 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 248DEG 35KT 3221 8211 

$$

RFM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL BE RUNNING INTO A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING THE WARM SECTOR TO BEGIN
ERODING.

THE DEEPER CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST INDICATES LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT IMMEDIATE NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE THEN MAINTAINED CHANCE TO
LIKELY RAIN PROBABILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE STRONGER
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. VERY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES HAS ALLOWED FOR UNSEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
SBCAPES ARE UP AROUND 2000 J/KG AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND STRONGER BUOYANCY AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE IS THERE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SOME VEERING IN THE WIND
PROFILE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND LOSE
SOME INSTABILITY AND AS WIND SHEAR DIMINISHES.

THE EROSION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS INT HE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DAMPEN AND WEAKEN WHILE STILL MAINTAINING A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT LAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING IN THE MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT WE WILL REMAIN WELL
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL PROGS SHOW NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES
TOO...SO THE FORECAST NOW KEEPS CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR
MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND SHIFTING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO EAST
AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER WARMING AND MORE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER
STEADILY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOME AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT...A HIGH
END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE NEEDED AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND...TO THE
UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT WEDNESDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK...SETTING UP WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL
RIDGING ALOFT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING FROPA. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOUGH A SHOWER MAY PASS OVER THE
TERMINAL...CHANCES REMAIN TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEGINNING AT
04Z...THOUGH IF KCHS RECEIVES ANY PRECIP THIS EVENING CEILINGS COULD
BEGIN TO FALL EARLIER. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS MOIST AIR OVERRIDES A WEAK WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING AS MIXING
BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE.

KSAV...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PERSISTED AT MOST NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA
OBS SITES THROUGH MIDDAY AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE AFORE MENTIONED CLOUD DECK WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY TO PASS OVER THE AIRPORT IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO VCSH PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW END MVFR RANGE AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS AFTER SUNSET...AND IMPROVE ONLY
MODESTLY TO HIGHER END MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AT LEAST PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVAILING
VFR SHOULD RETURN BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS UPWARDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS OR POSSIBLY EVEN PATCHY SEA FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TO
ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY AND WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE...STARTING
OFF SOUTHERLY AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
REGARDLESS THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED AND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 15 KT AND BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...LESS THAN 10
KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR NOVEMBER 2...

KCHS...69 SET IN 1971.
KSAV...70 SET IN 1979.
KCXM...72 SET IN 1971.

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPS FOR NOVEMBER 2...

KCHS...87 SET IN 1961.
KSAV...88 SET IN 1961.
KCXM...84 SET IN 1971.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/CEB
MARINE...BSH/JAQ
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
258 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115-SCZ040-042>045-047-032000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-ALLENDALE-
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
258 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR THE INTERNET
FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ116>119-137>141-SCZ048>052-032000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
258 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
241 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

SCZ045-050-052-022030-
TIDAL BERKELEY SC-INLAND BERKELEY SC-CHARLESTON SC-
241 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...STRONG SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EST...

AT 240 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON TO
NEAR SHADOWMOSS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...NORTH CHARLESTON...MOUNT PLEASANT...GOOSE CREEK...
HANAHAN...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON...MAGNOLIA GARDENS AND
I-26/I-526 INTERCHANGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT DAMAGE DIRECTLY TO THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-888-383-2024 WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR
REPORT TO CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 7973 3275 8018 3304 7998 3321 7956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 243DEG 29KT 3300 7998 3280 8012

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
243 PM EST MON NOV 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CHARLESTON AIRPORT      32.90N  80.04W
11/02/2015  M48 MPH          CHARLESTON         SC   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1501470

33