Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
LIKELY STALL OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SAVANNAH-BEAUFORT BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE SEA BREEZE HAS
PUSHED PART-WAY INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND FARTHER INTO SOUTHEAST SC.
THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHERN SC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY INTERACTING
WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL THUS FAR TODAY AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH FROM EARLIER PROGS. THE INCOMING CONVECTION WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH 7
OR 8 PM. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF WALTERBORO DOWN TOWARD
BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH MORE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORMS. ALSO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS ABOVE 2.1" AND SOME MERGING CELLS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND WET SOILS COULD SUPPORT SOME FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...EVENTUALLY STALLING INLAND. ALOFT...GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST AND WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE MUCH OF THE
TIME RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT LEAST NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
/ABOUT 30 PERCENT/.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE DAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CHARLESTON WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
/40 PERCENT/ RAIN CHANCES. HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES MAINLY 95-100 OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND CLOSER TO 105
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE. LOWS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
PWATS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE SEA
BREEZE AND INLAND TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES MOST INLAND AREAS AND CLOSER TO
105 DEGREES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY
EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL SC/GA WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST LATE. LOWS
WILL BE WARM IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

TUESDAY...STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD STALL DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...AROUND 90 NORTH WITH MID 90S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW THAT AT LEAST A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST/MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE UPPER TROUGH...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A WEAK COLD
FRONT STALLS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY
WORK INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE WEEK. SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY...HELPING TO SPARK CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS
MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DONE AT KCHS BUT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE KSAV TERMINAL
BETWEEN 21-00Z. AT THIS POINT WE MAINTAINED VICINITY TSRA BUT MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO AMEND TO INCLUDE PREVAILING TSRA. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THEN THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WE
MAINTAINED 6SM AT BOTH SITES SINCE WE THINK THE BEST FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...SINCE BOTH TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY HAVE WET SOIL...FOG MAY VERY WELL SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AND DROP VSBYS AT ONE OR BOTH TERMINALS INTO MVFR OR
LOWER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REASSESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY LEADING
TO BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS. LOWEST
CHANCES PROBABLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST LINE WHERE A 10-12 KT SEA BREEZE WILL
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL STALL INLAND. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD MID WEEK
BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED RISK
OF WATERSPOUTS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
442 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-230845-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
442 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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