Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS
THE GREATEST. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ADJUSTED
NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH GOING RADAR TRENDS.

LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A STEADY DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED ONGOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION COULD
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE
COAST...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS...POPS RAMP BACK UP TO AT LEAST
CHANCE OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
PREVAIL. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH SOME UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE FORCING FOR ASCENT RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES LIKELY PEAKING AROUND 100 DEGREES INLAND WEDNESDAY AND ABOVE
100 DEGREES INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS DEFINITELY AN ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN THE RECENT UNSETTLED
PATTERN...AS A DEEP ANTICYCLONE ALOFT STEADILY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS REPLACED BY THIS SUMMERS
TYPICAL EAST COAST COAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT DISSIPATES SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE NATION INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIMITED FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED
AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...UNTIL PROBABILITIES COULD CLIMB WITH
THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/SHALLOW FOG AT THE
TERMINALS. ATTM IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. WATCHING UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS WILL MISS BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. BUT NO EXTENDED
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS OR REDUCED VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE A
BIT OF A NOCTURNAL SURGE...15 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KT
OFFSHORE AND CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. SEAS 2-4 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE GIVES
WAY TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT FALLS APART IN OR NEAR THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY. SW WINDS WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BACK TO
EAST/SE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SOME OF THE SCATTERED T-STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG...AND
MARINERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
PERIODIC HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

ST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
351 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-190800-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
351 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
516 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON     32.78N  79.94W
08/18/2015                   CHARLESTON         SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CITY OF CHARLESTON EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS NUMEROUS
            ROADS REMAIN CLOSED THROUGHOUT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. MANY
            CARS ARE FLOODED OR STALLED. TRAFFIC REMAINS HEAVY.
            SOCIAL MEDIA IMAGES SHOW WATER SURROUNDING MANY HOMES
            AND BUSINESSES IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA. THE MARKET AREA IS
            FLOODED AND UNDER WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1500876

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
522 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW CHARLESTON        32.79N  79.95W
08/18/2015  M3.61 INCH       CHARLESTON         SC   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1500877

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
618 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ140-141-182245-
COASTAL MCINTOSH GA-INLAND MCINTOSH GA-COASTAL MCINTOSH GA-
618 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

AT 617 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COX...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF DARIEN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DARIEN...MERIDIAN...VALONA...COX...CARNIGAN AND RIDGEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8144 3138 8155 3145 8162 3152 8162
      3149 8129 3142 8131 3143 8133 3140 8132
      3140 8133 3137 8133 3137 8134 3136 8133
      3133 8134 3133 8137 3132 8134 3132 8139
      3131 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 285DEG 13KT 3142 8157

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

SCZ049-182345-
COASTAL COLLETON SC-
714 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM EDT...

AT 714 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BENNETTS POINT...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDISTO BEACH...MOVING SOUTH
AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENNETTS POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8042 3261 8039 3258 8040 3256 8042
      3255 8042 3253 8038 3250 8036 3247 8041
      3251 8044 3249 8047 3253 8054 3262 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 004DEG 12KT 3256 8044

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
843 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

GAZ099-100-190115-
BULLOCH GA-CANDLER GA-
843 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH AND CANDLER
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 843 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PULASKI...OR NEAR WESTSIDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATESBORO...WESTSIDE...MIDDLEGROUND...BROOKLET...PULASKI...
REGISTER...HOPEULIKIT AND LEEFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT DAMAGE DIRECTLY TO THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-888-383-2024 WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR
REPORT TO CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 3260 8176 3255 8169 3254 8166 3239 8156
      3227 8190 3227 8194 3242 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 240DEG 21KT 3238 8192

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