Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND THEN MOVE BY THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND KEEP
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DCAPES
OVER 1000 J/KG WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING. LOWS MAINLY MID TO UPPER
70S...GENERALLY WARMEST AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OCCURS OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BEFORE IT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS ABOVE 2.0 INCHES
AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE EARLY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS MID LVL FORCING
INCREASES WITH A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT. AT LEAST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO
LOW/MID 90S WELL INLAND. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD UNTIL THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRYER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER BY LATE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST NORTH OF THE
FRONT. BY SUNDAY...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN THE FORECAST FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RAIN
FREE IN MOST AREAS AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA OR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH STARTING LATE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES... GENERALLY FROM NEAR 90 NEAR THE
COAST TO THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 90S WELL INLAND. STILL WATCHING
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE STALLED
OUT FRONT...BUT THE CHANCES OF THAT OCCURRING HAVE SEEMED TO
DIMINISH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT THE TERMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THINK BEST CHANCES ARE 20-23Z AT KSAV AND 21-23Z AT
KCHS SO HAVE PREVAILING TEMPO DURING THESE PERIODS. DCAPES OVER
1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH
WINDS. CAN/T RULE OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING LATER INTO THE
EVENING AND EVEN SOME MORE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND SURGE THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST SC MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THEM TO SUBSIDE. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE 20-60
NM OFFSHORE GA ZONE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 15 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BETWEEN MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS WILL
THEN BE ON A DECREASING TREND INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
318 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-240730-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
318 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GREATEST BETWEEN 2 PM
AND 8 PM.

PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE TODAY. BE ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH OR IF
A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

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