Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A
WEAK INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS WEEKEND
AND REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA WHILE EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
DRY AIR SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER THOUGH DRIER AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THIS AREA. SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL SC/GA IN THE LEE OF THE SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSED THE
CUMULUS FIELD UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SURFACE TEMPS
REACHED THE LOWER 90S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE SC
PEE DEE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND INTO CENTRAL GA...ALONG WHICH A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...HIGHER
CAPES AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THUS FAR. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH ONCE WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE LAST OF THE STRONG JET ENERGY SHOULD BE PULLING
NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILD. THAT
COMBINATION SHOULD ENSURE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
DYING FRONT. DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP MANY PEOPLE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH
AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES TO THE MID
90S INLAND.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RIDGING ALOFT... WHILE THE INLAND TROF WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE
MASS FIELDS. TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH UPPER 90S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL GET UP TO 105-108...SO CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...BUT I THINK WE SHOULD STAY
JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND NO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REDEVELOPS
INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR BY
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURS OVER THE AREA WHILE A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO MID LVL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AT BOTH TERMINALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SHOWS
KSAV TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON THAN KCHS...PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF VCTS AT KSAV ONLY.
HI-RES MODELS GENERALLY SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 19 OR
20 Z. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT. A RATHER MOIST 5 TO 10 KFT LAYER
JUSTIFIED KEEPING A MID-LEVEL DECK AT KSAV THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE SAME
LAYER WILL ALLOW KCHS TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNRISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK THOUGH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACT TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS. PILOT BOATS EARLIER REPORTED
WINDS UP TO 20 KT. WE MAINTAINED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11
PM WITH 25 KT GUSTS. WE ALSO MAINTAINED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS WHERE WARMER WATERS EQUATE TO BETTER MIXING
AND A LIKELIHOOD OF 25 KT GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER
THE WATERS. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
NORTH...CAUSING THE WINDS TO GO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK...KEEPING WINDS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS SHOULD BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...CEB/FWA
MARINE...FWA/JRL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-160900-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
448 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE GREATEST
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

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