Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL EDGE CLOSER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WHILE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN.
AN INLAND TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE IS VERTICALLY STACKED FROM THE SURFACE UP
THROUGH 300 MB ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. INLAND...THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAK LOW OVER NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO COASTAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING +20C THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST. CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA HAS CAUSED A LACK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...
WHILE BETTER DEPTH OF MOISTURE ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA IS ALLOWING
MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS DIAGNOSED IN REAL-TIME QUITE WELL ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS WEBPAGE USING THE LCL-LFC RELATIVE HUMIDITY DISPLAY.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THEY ARE KEYED STRONGLY TO
DIURNAL HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 6-8 PM WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

GFS AND NAM MOS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT ALL STATIONS TONIGHT AND
APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN RECENT HISTORY AND THE WARM HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND REMAIN THE ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER PROSPECT OF RAINFALL
AS MID-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURS. STEERING FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TRANSITION TO A WNW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
TO MIGRATE OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF A DAMPENING UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD ENHANCE LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY...BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE INTO LATE SUNDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES AND ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A MID LVL TROUGH STRENGTHENS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ABSORBING A TUTT LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND WHILE THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS DEEPER MOISTURE TO
THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THE INLAND TROUGH INCHES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST BY
THE WEEKEND...LIMITING OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WARMEST OVER INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA...WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM AND THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
IN GOING FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL MVFR FOG TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
GIVEN INCREASED WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST PLUS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL HELP DIRECT A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE AND NORTHWARD
DUE TO INCREASING DISTANCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS
AFTERNOON'S SEABREEZE CIRCULATION HAS BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS
AROUND TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE COAST...BUT AS THIS CIRCULATION DIES
AWAY LATE THIS EVENING LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...WITH 10-15 KT EXPECTED FOR
GEORGIA.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3 FEET OUT AT THE EDISTO BUOY MAY BUILD BY AS MUCH AS
ANOTHER FOOT BY LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS.
CLOSER TO SHORE SEAS OF 2-3 FEET ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
IN 4-5 SECOND WIND WAVES WITH A TOUCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A MANAGEABLE WEEKEND
MARINE ENVIRONMENT IN STORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE
SW WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIGHTEN INTO SUNDAY AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
SHIFT TO N-NE AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATES
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MARINERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO OBTAIN A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE VENTURING OUT THIS
WEEKEND. SEAS A MIX OF SSW WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS...AND ESE
WAVES AROUND 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD PEAK
AROUND 20 KTS NEAR SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL
SURGES...ESPECIALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES EACH NIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT THIS WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TO 2-4
FT. WE COULD SEE 5 FT SEAS IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING
NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL/TRA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-111100-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

9

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