Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Caribou, ME

221 
WWUS51 KCAR 272306
SVSCAR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
706 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEC003-272314-
/O.EXP.KCAR.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150527T2300Z/
AROOSTOOK ME-
706 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4651 6779 4631 6808 4687 6854 4696 6779
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 253DEG 55KT 4676 6779 

$$
HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR WILL MAINLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB FOR FOG/STRATUS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1149 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-281600-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
1149 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...EASTERN
MAINE...FAR NORTHERN MAINE...NORTH CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE
AND WEST CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM DANFORTH TO DOVER-FOXCROFT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME ROTATION WITHIN THEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MAINE ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ015>017-029-030-281600-
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
1149 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ050>052-281600-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT, ME TO SCHOODIC POINT, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRA COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME-
1149 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HEWITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S SAINT AGATHA        47.16N 68.31W
05/27/2015                   AROOSTOOK          ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN SINCLAIR

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S SAINT AGATHA        47.13N 68.31W
05/27/2015                   AROOSTOOK          ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF 161 AND 162. ROAD BLOCKED

&&

FMK