Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
928 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...
ADDED SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS TO COASTAL ZONES WITH WV MVG UP FM CAPE
COD ALONG WEAK SFC TROF. PATCHY FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACRS
CWA THIS MRNG. JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS AND DWPTS. WL CONT TO
MONITOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AS NEW GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE'S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF VLIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE
OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-051700-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
1259 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE...EAST
CENTRAL MAINE...EASTERN MAINE...FAR NORTHERN MAINE...INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE...NORTH CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE AND WEST
CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ050>052-051700-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT, ME TO SCHOODIC POINT, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRA COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME-
1259 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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