Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
254 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WITH THE CELLS BEING PULSE TYPE. RADAR HAS NOTED SOME OUTFLOWS
FROM THE CELLS AS THEY COLLAPSE...HOWEVER THE CORES OF THE CELLS
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW CURRENTLY LIMITING THE GUSTS. VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW ALOFT EXISTS.
EXPECT CELLS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING
LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK FOR
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE DAILY TREK
TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK EACH AFTERNOON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGE GENERALLY FROM 104 TO 108 EACH DAY...SO AT THIS TIME A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE REQUIRED DUE TO THOSE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES. ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE
FOR AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS
THE LOW-COUNTRY WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD BE ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
FRIDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL THEN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS SHOULD BE A
WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE JUST AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BETTER SOUTHWARD
PUSH TO ANY COLD FRONTS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BE DIURNALLY INDUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SATELLITE AND WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED AROUND CAE/CUB/OGB AND CURRENTLY REMAIN NORTH OF AGS/DNL.
RADAR IMAGERY NOTES SOME GUSTS WINDS WITH COLLAPSING
CELLS...HOWEVER THE GUSTS ARE VERY LOCALIZED AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PULSE TYPE AND MOVEMENT IS MINIMAL. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE
REMAINED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT CAE/CUB/OGB...CONFIDENCE
IN CONVECTION REACHING AGS/DNL REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD WELL BE ON OUR WAY TO A RECORD NUMBER OF 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN THE MONTH OF JUNE AT COLUMBIA...THE RECORD IS 10 SET IN 1952.

RECORDS FROM MON JUNE 22ND THROUGH THU JUNE 25TH AUGUSTA...
JUN 22...101 IN 1925
JUN 23...104 IN 1944
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...104 IN 1914

COLUMBIA...
JUN 22...101 SET IN 1939 AND TIED IN 1956 AND 1988
JUN 23...102 SET IN 1914 AND TIED IN 1956 AND 1988
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...103 IN 1952

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
231145-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
731 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
313 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

SCZ036>038-222015-
CLARENDON-CALHOUN-ORANGEBURG-
313 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...
SOUTHWESTERN CLARENDON AND EAST CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTIES...

AT 313 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ELLOREE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANTEE...EUTAWVILLE AND VANCE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3350 8010 3350 8012 3348 8015 3346 8013
      3346 8015 3345 8015 3345 8020 3344 8020
      3345 8022 3340 8022 3339 8024 3330 8026
      3351 8055 3360 8046 3351 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 295DEG 9KT 3355 8048

WRS