Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA OVERNIGHT AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
LATE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
IFR SATELLITE INDICATED A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
GA...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE UPSTATE OF SC TO
SOUTHWEST GA AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL IN ORDER FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDLANDS. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTH MIDLANDS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
CSRA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE VERY ACTIVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NEAR/SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOW COUNTRY SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
WEAKENED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA. MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA AT 08Z
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS/CSRA REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IN PLACE. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY BUT CONFIDENCE
RELATIVELY HIGH THAT NORTH OF COLUMBIA WILL SEE VERY LITTLE
WARMING TODAY AS WEDGE DEVELOPS. LOWER CONFIDENCE SOUTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES COULD RISE AHEAD OF FRONT. SREF SUPPORTS FALLING
TEMPERATURES AFTER 18Z ALL AREAS.

AIR MASS POSSIBLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF COLUMBIA AHEAD OF FRONT. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG
FRONT AND MODELS SUGGEST STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CSRA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
CONVECTION ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NAM IS SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LATEST RUNS 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING AROUND THE LOW RANGE OF THE NAM...ABOUT 1.00
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION EXPECTED. GUIDANCE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TONIGHT SEEMS ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE NEAR CERTAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN WEDGE. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS
THURSDAY AS STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE APPEARS LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RISE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND LEANED MORE TOWARD LOCAL WEDGE GUIDANCE/SREF...MUCH
COOLER THAN MOS. TEMPERATURES IN THE COLUMBIA AREA EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S. AROUND 60 IN AGS...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
AND DRIER FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEDGE MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
HOWEVER...SO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. CUT
POPS BACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WENT A LITTLE WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERALITY BUT THERE IS DIVERGENCE
ON THE DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE PERIOD.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES WITH CIGS
BELOW 1000 FEET. CONDITIONS NOW LOWERING TO IFR AT AGS/DNL AT
14Z.

PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AT 14Z WILL MOVE SOUTH OF AGS/DNL
OVERNIGHT AS WEDGE CONDITIONS STRENGTHENS FROM THE NORTH.

POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS AFTER 16/06Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS NORTHEAST AROUND 10
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT
AGS/DNL BECOMING NORTHEAST BY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED
NEAR THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
532 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-160932-
AIKEN-BAMBERG-BARNWELL-BURKE-CALHOUN-CHESTERFIELD-CLARENDON-COLUMBIA-
EDGEFIELD-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-LANCASTER-LEE-LEXINGTON-LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-
MCDUFFIE-NEWBERRY-ORANGEBURG-RICHLAND-RICHMOND-SALUDA-SUMTER-
532 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1128 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GAZ040-064-SCZ018-025-151615-
COLUMBIA-EDGEFIELD-LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-
1128 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LINCOLN...COLUMBIA...
EDGEFIELD AND MCCORMICK COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1124 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARKSVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
LAKE THURMOND...PARKSVILLE...MODOC

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS TO BOATERS ON LAKE THURMOND.
YOUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION DURING A THUNDERSTORM IS TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE OPEN LAKE WATERS...STAY BELOW
DECK...AND IF POSSIBLE...AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

REPORT HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY SHERIFF...OR
USE WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCOLUMBIA AND EMAIL CAEWX@NOAA.GOV TO RELAY
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8199 3365 8193 3359 8241 3361 8243
      3364 8244 3365 8243 3364 8246 3364 8247
      3373 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 257DEG 22KT 3368 8243

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