Alert archive / South Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

January 4, 20157 counties in South Carolina; Burke County, Richmond County, Georgia

NWS Columbia, SC issued this special weather statement at Jan 4, 2015, 12:46 PM EST for 7 counties in South Carolina; Burke County, Richmond County, Georgia. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 4, 2015, 12:46 PM EST (17:46 UTC)
Expired: Jan 4, 2015, 1:45 PM EST
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Columbia, SC

Counties Burke County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Aiken County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Richland County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 700 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 527 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 180 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jan 4, 12:14 PM EST, 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 4, 12:14 PM EST, 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1214 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. AIR MASS BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA
WITH LI -1 TO -3 AND TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS IN THE 70S.
SB CAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG AND
APPROACHING 60 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50
KTS AND AREA NEAR RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET-MAX. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING SQUALL LINE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHERB GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE THREAT AND SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP IN HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT BUT GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WIND
MAIN THREAT. WITH MODELS INDICATING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
AREA WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH POPS CATEGORICAL. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM HAS FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AT 03Z...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST MIDLANDS UNTIL 05Z
THEN CLEARING AND TURNING COLDER AS COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRY AND SEASONABLE AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ARCTIC AIR
DIVES SOUTH WITH THE SECOND TROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
...GENERALLY FROM 17Z TO 22Z. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES
BUT CAN AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT CLEARING AND A WIND SHIFT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 4, 4:27 AM EST, 8 hours 19 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
427 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-050930-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
427 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 4, 10:01 AM EST, 2 hours 45 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1001 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

SCZ015-016-041530-
CHESTERFIELD-LANCASTER-
1001 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHESTERFIELD AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM EST...

AT 1000 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORMS...NEAR IRWIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...IRWIN...LANCASTER AND PAGELAND...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR USE WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCOLUMBIA AND EMAIL
CAEWX@NOAA.GOV TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8078 3482 8079 3482 8038 3481 8029
      3452 8087 3464 8090 3470 8086 3474 8089
      3479 8088 3483 8091 3484 8087 3490 8088
      3500 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 239DEG 35KT 3472 8082

SJN

Special weather statement, Jan 4, 12:46 PM EST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1246 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

GAZ065-077-SCZ015-016-021-022-027-028-030-035>037-041845-
AIKEN-BARNWELL-BURKE-CALHOUN-CHESTERFIELD-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-
LANCASTER-LEXINGTON-ORANGEBURG-RICHLAND-RICHMOND-
1246 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...STRONG STORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF RICHMOND...BURKE...
CHESTERFIELD...FAIRFIELD...KERSHAW...LANCASTER...LEXINGTON...
RICHLAND...AIKEN...CALHOUN...ORANGEBURG AND BARNWELL COUNTIES THROUGH
145 PM EST...

AT 1240 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG STORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ELGIN IN LANCASTER COUNTY TO 6 MILES EAST OF HEPHZIBAH IN RICHMOND
COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
AIKEN...BARNWELL...BELVEDERE...BLACKVILLE...CAMDEN...CAYCE...
CHESTERFIELD...COLUMBIA...HEATH SPRINGS...KERSHAW...NEW
ELLENTON...PAGELAND...WAYNESBORO...AND THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR USE WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCOLUMBIA AND EMAIL
CAEWX@NOAA.GOV TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8232 3323 8224 3331 8233 3388 8157
      3404 8149 3408 8139 3411 8141 3482 8058
      3480 7993 3410 8058 3410 8062 3406 8062
      3313 8146 3315 8155 3310 8160 3303 8156
      3291 8176 3295 8187 3291 8208 3281 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 293DEG 50KT 3468 8046 3327 8188

SJN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Columbia, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 4, 10:01 AM EST	Special Weather Statement	CAE	Lancaster	29 min
Jan 4, 1:48 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	CAE	Richland	57 min
Jan 4, 1:53 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	CAE	Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun, Chesterfield, Kershaw, Lee and 3 more	52 min
Jan 4, 1:57 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Bamberg, Barnwell	33 min
Jan 4, 2:06 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Kershaw, Richland	39 min
Jan 4, 2:49 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	CAE	Calhoun, Chesterfield, Kershaw, Lee, Orangeburg, Sumter	86 min
Jan 4, 3:26 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	CAE	Sumter	34 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in South Carolina, 2015 Special Weather Statements in Georgia, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.