Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT IS ANOTHER HOT DAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING HAS HELPED
PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105...BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 110 FOR 2 HOURS OR LONGER.

THE LATEST ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK SURFACE HEAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE MAY
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND UPPER RIDGING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
DISPLAY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED COVERAGE.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BE SEVERE. EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE-BASED LI VALUES WERE -6 TO -7 C. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS
HAD LARGE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
ARE A THREAT.

THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH WILL BE REPLACED BY A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH STARTING LATE FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED AND
PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND IN THE 30 T0 50 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE DIURNALLY MODULATED. THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND WILL BE A THREAT.

THE LATEST ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK SURFACE HEAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE MAY
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND UPPER RIDGING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
DISPLAY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE-BASED LI VALUES WERE -6 TO -7 C. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS
HAD LARGE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT.

THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS. CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD
LIMIT THE FOG THREAT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FROM TUE JUNE 24TH AND THU JUNE 25TH

AUGUSTA...
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...104 IN 1914

COLUMBIA...
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...103 IN 1952

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
514 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
250915-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
514 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
342 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE THOMSON           33.44N 82.49W
06/24/2015                   MCDUFFIE           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN. ONE INCH HAIL ALSO
            REPORTED.

&&

DCM