Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 PM EDT SAT SEP  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE
INTO THE REGION PROVIDING A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORMS...THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS CONDUCIVE WITH
LESS DRY AIR ALOFT AVAILABLE COMPARED TO FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CSRA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND
DEEP EASTERLY WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  PW VALUES WILL
REMAIN HIGH WITH ALL THE MOISTURE...WITH READINGS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN PLACES.  DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
WITH ANY SLOWER MOVING STORMS.  FOR THE MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
NUDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS THE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION MORE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  ACROSS OUR AREA...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH BACK INTO
THE REGION. THIS BRINGS MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AREA WILL STILL HAVE GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO DO EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL MAY OCCUR LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSE TO CLIMATE
NORMALS...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CSRA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN
AGS/DNL THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES AROUND
09Z. SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-051945-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
344 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1112 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SE VIDETTE            32.94N 82.14W
09/04/2015                   BURKE              GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED A FEW SMALL TREES AND LIMBS
            DOWN.

&&

NWS COLUMBIA SC
IRIS SYSTEM