Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1003 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE...NOW OVER
NORTHERN AL...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 2 INCHES
AND WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE CELLS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD AGAIN PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 90
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK AND
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY. REMAINS OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FURTHER DIGGING ON FRIDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GFS KEEPING
THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF EJECTS THE TROUGH
AND BEGINS DEEPENING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS
VALLEY. CONCERN HERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTION. CURRENTLY COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE LACKING AND HAVE
REMAINED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR THROUGH 16Z.

CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIFT MODEST HOWEVER. CIGS/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
437 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-240845-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
437 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

GAZ040-063>065-231645-
MCDUFFIE-LINCOLN-RICHMOND-COLUMBIA-
1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN RICHMOND...
SOUTHERN LINCOLN...MCDUFFIE AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 1159 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR RAYLE TO NEAR NORWOOD TO DEEPSTEP...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GROVETOWN...EVANS...THOMSON...MARTINEZ...HARLEM...LINCOLNTON...BLYTHE
AND DEARING.

LAT...LON 3364 8261 3363 8258 3366 8251 3365 8249
      3380 8258 3382 8233 3349 8211 3329 8221
      3327 8228 3331 8234 3331 8239 3334 8244
      3336 8255 3341 8255 3346 8259 3361 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 268DEG 52KT 3385 8292 3341 8278 3303 8295

SJN