Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW NEAR AUGUSTA WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE TO SW. COOLER TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND 80S ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO INDICATE SOME
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AND CURRENT
RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER AIR TONIGHT WILL BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH THAT CLOSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER AND INTO THE
UPSTATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISHING
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY UNDER
WEDGE-LIKE SETUP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT RETROGRADES
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH OR
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSRUE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH A LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...MODELS STILL
INDICATE A SMALL POP FOR WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE LEFT IT DRY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING POPS CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM APPEAR TO BE
ON THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW AND MOIST
LOW LEVEL SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW OR NEAR
CLIMO...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ON THURSDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT
STRATUS AND AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BY 09Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. EARLY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
418 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-220830-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
418 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
352 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015

GAZ077-212045-
BURKE-
352 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY...

AT 350 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MIDVILLE...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDVILLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN
WITH MORE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3282 8226 3283 8231 3293 8227 3304 8229
      3292 8207 3292 8208 3288 8213 3281 8215
      3282 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 220DEG 5KT 3284 8227

CJR

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