Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA HAS GENERATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND SOME AREAS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES PER HOUR. CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION FROM
COLUMBIA TO JUST WEST OF AUGUSTA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MAIN CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE FLOODING IN FIVE POINTS AREA
WHICH HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
SMALL STREAMS WHICH ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT RAINS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE MODELS
SHIFT THE UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 THURSDAY AND -10 C FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME. H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 WARM TO AROUND -8 FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING EARLY...BUT A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY LINGER. THE MODELS DISPLAY
MORE SURFACE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH RESTRICTIONS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 09Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE INTO THE
TAF SITES AROUND 07Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA UNTIL DAYBREAK. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
041745-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
137 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE MARTINEZ          33.54N 82.08W
06/04/2015                   COLUMBIA           GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED ROADWAY FLOODING OVER SOCIAL
            MEDIA IN MARTINEZ GA. SMALL HAIL WAS ALSO
            REPORTED.

&&

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE LEXINGTON          33.96N 81.20W
06/04/2015                   LEXINGTON          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED ROADWAY FLOODING
            AT THE INTERSECTION OF EMANUEL CHURCH ROAD
            AND TWO NOTCH ROAD.

&&

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
305 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COLUMBIA                34.00N 81.03W
06/04/2015                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED FLOODING AT THE
            JOHN C CALHOUN BUILDING NEAR THE SC STATE
            HOUSE.

&&

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WNW AUGUSTA           33.47N 82.03W
06/04/2015                   RICHMOND           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RICHMOND COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED SEVERAL
            ROADS CLOSED IN AUGUSTA DUE TO FLOODING
            INCLUDING WRIGHTSBORO ROAD AND HIGHLAND
            AVENUE.

&&

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AUGUSTA           33.47N 82.03W
06/04/2015                   RICHMOND           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RICHMOND COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED SEVERAL
            ROADS CLOSED IN AUGUSTA DUE TO FLOODING
            INCLUDING WRIGHTSBORO ROAD AND HIGHLAND
            AVENUE.

&&

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COLUMBIA                34.00N 81.03W
06/04/2015                   RICHLAND           SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED SEVERAL FLOODED
            ROADS IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA SC.

&&

CJR