Special Weather Statement, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
410 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHEAR IS INCREASING A BIT IN RESPONSE TO WESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTH
AND ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH THE EVENING TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 223 PM...
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION SPREAD INTO THE BEARTOOTH
ABSAROKAS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BIGHORN MTNS AS OF 1930Z. UPPER
SUPPORT WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING HOURS AS JET LIFTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH...ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF DEEP UPPER LOW WHICH IS MOVING
SLOWLY OVER THE SW CONUS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH AS THERE ARE AREAS OF LINGERING UPSLOPE
STRATOCU AND MID CLOUD WHICH ARE LIMITING SFC HEATING...SO FOCUS
MAY BE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THIS EARLY JUNE AIRMASS IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND PWATS ANALYZED TO BE OVER
AN INCH ACROSS OUR EAST. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 15-25 MPH FROM
SHERIDAN TO BAKER ARE PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW AT 25 KTS OR LESS.

OVERALL THEME OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH MAIN THREATS TO BE SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHERE WE ARE ANTICIPATING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION PER SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND
LATE ARRIVAL OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM 21Z TO
12Z EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SHEAR TO INCREASE MODESTLY TO 25-30 KTS
BY EVENING AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
AS WELL.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT PER
PASSAGE OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL
COMMENCE SATURDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TAPERING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. COULD SEE ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER
OUR SOUTHERN MTNS ON SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AND STABLE SFC RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE
PAC NW...WITH TROF REMAINING OVER THE SW CONUS.

TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90F IN PLACES. THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY YET OF 2015. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS IN STORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS ON
THE POST-FRONTAL SIDE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
EXPECT HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND MAYBE UPPER
80S IN OUR SOUTHEAST.

THINGS WILL GET MORE INTERESTING AGAIN BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BOTH IN RESPONSE
TO WESTERN CANADA SHORTWAVE AND ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
IN BACKING FLOW ALOFT. GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXISTS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT. TEMPS
WILL TREND COOLER THESE DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY. WE SHOULD START TO TREND DRIER AND WARMER BY FRIDAY AS
PACIFIC NW RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

LOCAL MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO IMPACT WESTERN AREAS NEAR KBIL AND
KLVM AS OF 19Z...BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY AS WE BEGIN TO DRAW DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH.
JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/075 053/080 057/088 060/083 058/077 056/073 053/075
    63/W    00/B    00/U    01/B    35/T    53/T    32/T
LVM 049/073 048/079 050/086 053/084 054/076 052/072 048/074
    43/T    21/B    00/U    12/T    35/T    54/T    33/T
HDN 055/077 050/082 053/089 057/086 055/079 055/075 053/077
    63/W    00/B    00/U    01/B    35/T    54/T    22/T
MLS 058/078 054/083 058/089 060/084 058/077 056/073 053/073
    73/W    00/U    00/U    01/U    34/T    44/T    22/T
4BQ 056/075 053/080 056/085 058/083 057/077 056/071 051/073
    73/T    10/B    00/U    01/U    35/T    54/T    32/T
BHK 056/076 051/082 052/086 057/082 053/074 052/071 048/071
    93/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    24/T    44/T    32/T
SHR 050/072 049/076 051/084 052/082 053/077 054/071 049/071
    64/T    21/B    00/B    12/T    35/T    54/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES
      31>33-36-37-58.
WY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
411 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-062215-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
411 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE SKIES AND MONITOR
LOCAL WEATHER ALERTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JKL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
421 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

MTZ036-037-052315-
CARTER MT-POWDER RIVER MT-
421 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 418 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROADUS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
STREAMS AND DITCHES TO RISE QUICKLY ALONG WITH PRODUCING STANDING
WATER ON ROADS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. THOSE LIVING
NEAR STREAMS SHOULD WATCH FOR QUICKLY RISING WATER AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE ACTION IF NECESSARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POWDERVILLE AND BOYES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4523 10483 4523 10520 4578 10527 4578 10472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 183DEG 11KT 4534 10505

TWH