Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
134 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...WITH
SOME REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL NEAR COLUMBUS.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...DUE TO
THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER LAST EVENINGS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. A FEW MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES HAVE FORMED FROM THE
EARLIER MCS IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND THE CONVECTION HAS FIRED
ALONG THOSE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECTING A SIMILAR
SETUP AS LAST EVENING...BUT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL ENERGY AND
A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR. IN LOOKING AT THE ANALYSES...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING. SPC SSEO FORECASTS HAVE KEPT THE MAIN
BAND OF CONVECTION CONFINED FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE MID LEVELS APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS WILL FAVOR FORWARD MOVING STORMS WITH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THEM. LIKE LAST EVENING...THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

INTER AND INTRA MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED. THE
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WAVES
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SUPPLY SOME GOOD
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
STILL BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE. SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT...THOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND VALUES WILL BE A BIT LOWER.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE WARMING GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST TIMING WILL BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TAFS AS
NEEDED WITH RADAR TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BRIEF WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/069 051/070 052/074 055/075 053/079 057/080 056/078
    32/T    43/T    33/T    53/T    32/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 045/065 047/070 049/071 049/073 049/076 054/077 051/075
    44/T    43/T    44/T    44/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 049/072 052/073 052/078 055/076 053/081 057/083 056/080
    32/T    54/T    33/T    53/T    32/T    22/T    33/T
MLS 050/072 053/068 053/076 057/076 054/080 057/082 058/079
    21/B    46/T    33/T    55/T    31/B    22/T    23/T
4BQ 049/072 054/070 054/076 056/075 053/078 057/080 056/077
    41/B    56/T    33/T    55/T    42/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 048/068 048/068 050/074 053/074 051/077 053/080 053/076
    21/B    36/T    32/T    55/T    41/B    22/T    23/T
SHR 047/068 048/070 050/073 052/072 049/075 053/077 052/076
    42/T    63/T    44/T    44/T    42/T    33/T    44/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
158 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MTZ028>030-034>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-032000-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN STILLWATER-
YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-
NORTHERN PARK-NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-
RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-
PARADISE VALLEY-LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-CRAZY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
158 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ031>033-032000-
NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-FALLON-
158 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
308 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MTZ035-038-057-022215-
YELLOWSTONE MT-NORTHERN BIG HORN MT-SOUTHERN BIG HORN MT-
308 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 307 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT SMITH...OR 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARDIN...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT SMITH...CROW AGENCY...ST. XAVIER AND CROW INDIAN RESERVATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4535 10813 4552 10812 4552 10808 4554 10807
      4559 10746 4524 10746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 271DEG 21KT 4542 10806

HUMPHREY

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