Alert archive / New York / Special Weather Statements in 2015
Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this special weather statement at Aug 18, 2015, 3:38 PM EDT for Ontario County, Wayne County, New York. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2015, 3:38 PM EDT (19:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 18, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Ontario County, NY, Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 234 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -64 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1139 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 29 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 18, 3:14 PM EDT, 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 3:14 PM EDT, 24 minutes before
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 18, 10:53 AM EDT, 4 hours 45 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1053 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-191500- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- SOUTHERN ERIE- 1053 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL INCLUDE SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS. SINCE THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR MULTIPLE SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA (TRAINING STORMS)...AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING STORMS TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH... OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA...TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ006>008-191500- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 1053 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING STORMS TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH...OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA...TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-191500- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 1053 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ003>005-013-014-021-191500- MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- 1053 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING STORMS TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH... OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA...TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 11:13 AM EDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1113 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015
NYZ010-085-181545-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1113 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY...
AT 1112 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER EAST AURORA...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...CHEEKTOWAGA...WEST SENECA...CLARENCE...LACKAWANNA...
DEPEW...AMHERST...LANCASTER...EAST AURORA AND WILLIAMSVILLE.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN EXITS 56 AND 49.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4293 7890 4303 7860 4273 7848 4266 7872
4283 7886 4284 7886 4286 7887 4286 7888
4288 7888 4288 7889 4290 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 156DEG 17KT 4277 7865
MITCHELLSpecial weather statement, Aug 18, 2:46 PM EDT, 52 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015
NYZ006-181945-
OSWEGO-
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...
AT 244 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BREWERTON MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTRAL SQUARE...HASTINGS...CONSTANTIA...WEST MONROE...PALERMO...
AMBOY...PARISH...MALLORY...SAND RIDGE AND PENNELLVILLE.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 32 AND 33.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
LAT...LON 4319 7602 4320 7604 4320 7608 4323 7610
4324 7616 4327 7620 4324 7621 4320 7621
4323 7625 4322 7627 4323 7627 4324 7626
4324 7627 4341 7633 4342 7596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 177DEG 13KT 4322 7614
REYNOLDSSpecial weather statement, Aug 18, 3:38 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015
NYZ003-004-013-014-182230-
ONTARIO-LIVINGSTON-MONROE-WAYNE-
338 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWN POURS WILL AFFECT
EASTERN MONROE...WAYNE AND ONTARIO COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWN POURS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR MORE IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THESE
RAINFALL RATES WILL QUICKLY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. DRIVER ARE URGED TO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS AND OR ATTEMPT TO WADE THROUGH ANY FLOODED AREAS.
LAT...LON 4324 7755 4327 7742 4329 7715 4327 7695
4334 7674 4302 7674 4301 7696 4276 7697
4276 7731 4267 7737 4258 7737 4258 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 177DEG 12KT 4310 7681
REYNOLDSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 10:42 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | BUF | Allegany, Cayuga, Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne | 9 hr |
| Aug 18, 11:13 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Erie | 32 min |
| Aug 18, 2:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Oswego | 59 min |
| Aug 18, 2:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Oswego | 42 min |
| Aug 18, 3:53 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Ontario | 3 hr |
| Aug 18, 4:24 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Oswego | 66 min |
| Aug 18, 4:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Oswego | 53 min |
| Aug 18, 4:44 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Wayne | 61 min |
| Aug 18, 5:01 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 59 min | |
| Aug 18, 5:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Lewis | 45 min |
| Aug 18, 7:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Jefferson | 29 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in New York, 2015Every special weather statement in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.