Alert archive / New York / Special Weather Statements in 2015
Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this special weather statement at May 11, 2015, 3:09 PM EDT for Wayne County, New York. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2015, 3:09 PM EDT (19:09 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
County Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 88 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -101 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1041 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 137 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 11, 2:14 PM EDT, 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 2:14 PM EDT, 55 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
214 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AND ACT AS A PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION FORMING THIS AFTERNOON...TWO WELL
INLAND ALONG SUBTLE BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT
WELL EAST OF ANY LAKE BOUNDARIES. A SINGLE CELL HAS FORMED ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE BOUNDARY NEAR 18Z. THESE LINES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE STEADILY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH WINDS ALOFT NEAR 20-30KT.
AS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET...THE NEXT AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE REGION. TIMING FOR THIS EVENT
SHOULD BE DURING THE EVENING IN WESTERN NY...AND MIDNIGHT OR
SO/LATER EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WITH STEADILY DECREASING
INTENSITY WITH TIME.
ON TUESDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF DRY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND JUST
ENOUGH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME BRIEF LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT
THESE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD EASILY MIX
DOWN ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 50MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS AND ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPANSIVE NORTHERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NORTH WEST
FLOW OF DRY MODIFIED- ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO WORK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 0C WHICH IS ABOUT 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL KEEP HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE 50S DESPITE
THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF INLAND DIURNAL SHOWERS IF ENOUGH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE REMAINS.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SO
FROST MAY BECOME A CONCERN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DAY
EXPECTED THEN SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL. ADVECTION OF EVEN WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR NEXT WEEKEND BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND 500MB SHORTWAVE CUTTING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT SUNDAY AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW EAST COAST 500MB RIDGING DEVELOPING
AGAIN
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BRIEF
MVFR/IFR...WITH MAINLY VFR BETWEEN THE MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF
CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON ON BOTH LAKES
AS A WARM AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE. ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BEHIND
THIS FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-
010>012-019-085.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFFHazardous weather outlook, May 11, 2:20 PM EDT, 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 220 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 NYZ004>008-013-014-020-021-121830- WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- 220 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY DEVELOP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-121830- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA- SOUTHERN ERIE- 220 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY DEVELOP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-121830- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 220 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF HITCHCOCK
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 11, 9:55 AM EDT, 5 hours 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0336 PM HAIL PERRY CENTER 42.75N 78.01W
05/10/2015 M0.50 INCH WYOMING NY TRAINED SPOTTER
0431 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSE AVON 42.90N 77.73W
05/10/2015 LIVINGSTON NY TRAINED SPOTTER
POLE BRIDGE RD AND LAKE RD CLOSED.
0435 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW AVON 42.91N 77.75W
05/10/2015 LIVINGSTON NY PUBLIC
REPORT OF RESCUES FOR PEOPLE TRAPPED IN STALLED CARS IN
FLOODED AREAS.
0525 PM FLASH FLOOD AVON 42.91N 77.75W
05/10/2015 LIVINGSTON NY SOCIAL MEDIA
FLOODING AT SAINT AGNES SCHOOL
0530 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW ASHANTEE 42.89N 77.79W
05/10/2015 LIVINGSTON NY SOCIAL MEDIA
BOYD RD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE FROM A SMALL CREEK
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1500046 BUF1500045 BUF1500047 BUF1500049 BUF1500048
HITCHCOCKSpecial weather statement, May 11, 1:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 113 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 NYZ021-111745- ALLEGANY- 113 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY... AT 111 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GENESEE...OR NEAR WELLSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WHITESVILLE... OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ANDOVER...PAYNESVILLE AND STANNARDS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. LAT...LON 4201 7798 4223 7774 4200 7775 4200 7799 TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 225DEG 11KT 4205 7788 REYNOLDS
Special weather statement, May 11, 3:01 PM EDT, 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 301 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 NYZ004-014-111945- ONTARIO-WAYNE- 301 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES... AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PALMYRA OR 13 MILES EAST OF FAIRPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... NEWARK AROUND 315 PM EDT. LYONS AROUND 330 PM EDT. CLYDE AROUND 345 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PORT GIBSON...NORTH ROSE...HURON...ALTON...WILLOW CREEK ESTATES...WALWORTH...FAIRVILLE AND ROSE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. LAT...LON 4302 7728 4318 7729 4326 7684 4303 7679 TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 264DEG 17KT 4309 7717 REYNOLDS
Special weather statement, May 11, 3:09 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 309 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 NYZ004-014-111945- ONTARIO-WAYNE- 309 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES... AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PALMYRA OR 13 MILES EAST OF FAIRPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... NEWARK... LYONS... CLYDE... OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PORT GIBSON...NORTH ROSE...HURON...ALTON...WILLOW CREEK ESTATES...WALWORTH...FAIRVILLE AND ROSE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. LAT...LON 4302 7728 4318 7729 4326 7684 4303 7679 TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 264DEG 17KT 4309 7717 REYNOLDS
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 1:13 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Allegany | 32 min |
| May 11, 2:16 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | BUF | Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe, Niagara, Orleans and 1 more | 25 hr |
| May 11, 3:01 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Wayne | 44 min |
| May 11, 3:33 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Cayuga | 27 min |
| May 11, 3:53 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Oswego | 52 min |
| May 11, 3:57 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 43 hr | |
| May 11, 5:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Ontario | 29 min |
| May 11, 7:55 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 2 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in New York, 2015Every special weather statement in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.