Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
733 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL
SURGES OF VERY COLD AIR WILL POUR SOUTH FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE FRIGID AIR WILL FUEL SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES...INCLUDING SNOWS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE
ONE TO TWO FEET EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP...FULLY PHASED LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
CIRCULATE FRIGID AIR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT OUR TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL. WHILE THIS MAY NOT SOUND
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...KEEP IN MIND THAT WE ARE CLOSE TO THE LOWEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...WHICH TYPICALLY OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF JANUARY.

WHILE ALL OF US WILL HAVE TO EXPERIENCE THE MID WINTER COLD...SOME
WILL ALSO HAVE TO ENDURE ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS. THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...AND AS TODAY PROGRESSES...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
(H85 TO -24C) WILL FURTHER NOURISH THE INSATIABLE LAKE SNOW MACHINE.
LICAPES OF 700-1000 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ICE FREE LAKES WITH
A CAP RANGING FROM 8 TO 10K FT (HIGHER FOR LK ONT).

TAKING A MORE DETAILED LOOK AT EACH LAKE...
A WELL ALIGNED STEADY STATE 280 FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER LAKE ERIE
TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOUND BELOW 6K FT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT MULTIPLE BANDS OF MODERATE LAKE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY RANGING FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM
WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER...SO
HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE SNOW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO COUNTIES. A 20 TO 30 MPH WIND WILL ALSO TRANSPORT ACCUMULATING
LAKE SNOWS FURTHER EAST THAN USUAL...SO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALLEGANY AND SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW...PARTICULARLY
ON OPEN NORTH-SOUTH ROADS.

TONIGHT...A ROBUST SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES OF BRITISH COLUMBIA) WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FLAT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
LOWER THE LIMITING CAP ON THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SOME
BACKING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THAT SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT NORTH
TOWARDS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. WHILE THE SNOW WILL STILL BE
DISORGANIZED OVER THE SRN TIER DURING THE EVENING...THE ACTIVITY MAY
CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT INTO AN ORGANIZED PLUME AS THE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LONGER FETCH.

THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOWS THOUGH WILL BE FOUND EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OVER LK ERIE...A WELL ESTABLISHED UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL ENRICH/DEEPEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE
BY A FEW THOUSAND FEET. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WELL ALIGNED
280-290 FLOW OVER THE FULL FETCH OF LK ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR...WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OSWEGO
COUNTY FORECAST TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHTNING IN THE
INTENSIFYING ACTIVITY BEFORE 15Z...AFTER WHICH TIME THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WILL LOWER FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SFC...LIMITING THE MIXED
PHASE CLOUD DEPTH. AS OF DAYBREAK THOUGH...DUAL POL PRODUCTS FROM
THE KTYX RADAR WERE NOT INDICATING ANY GRAUPEL NOR ECHO RETURNS
OVER 35 DBZ.

AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION (12Z)...THE LAKES SNOWS OFF
ONTARIO HAD BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE PLUME OVER OSWEGO
COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE INTO A BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW WHILE SETTLING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE
WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE CAP WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT
DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH CAP SPACE TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD
DROP OFF SOMEWHAT THOUGH AS THE CONNECTION TO LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY
IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. THESE READINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILL VALUES
THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO AT TIMES. TONIGHT SHOULD THEN BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT UP TO THIS POINT WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM THE LAKES. WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ZERO
TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...A MODEST SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CAN NOW BARELY EVEN BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TRUE CLIPPER. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF WAYS. FIRST AND FOREMOST...THE LIKELIHOOD
AND POTENTIAL AMOUNT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH MOST AREAS NOW LIKELY TO ONLY SEE AN INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOUND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SECOND...THE WEAKER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GENERALLY REMAIN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. WITH OUR AIRMASS
REMAINING COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...THIS WILL IN TURN LIKELY
ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THOUGH THE INTENSITY AND INLAND EXTENT OF THIS SHOULD BE
HELD GREATLY IN CHECK BY THE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND MODERATELY SHEARED
NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE AFFECTED AREAS SUB-ADVISORY IN NATURE. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A
BRIEF INFLUX OF "MILDER" AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK TO AROUND 20 ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH SUCH READINGS WILL STILL AVERAGE OUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND BETTER ALIGNED AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...WITH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH OUR AIRMASS REMAINING PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT /850 MB TEMPS AVERAGING -18C/...THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF REINVIGORATED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO THE
EAST OF THE LAKES. COUPLED WITH THE USUAL OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON HILLS/SOUTHERN TIER EAST OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE EAST
OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THIS PARTICULARLY THE CASE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
JUDGING FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...WE HAVE HOISTED A NEW ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND FOR THE THREE COUNTIES EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IN BOTH AREAS...ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE AFOREMENTIONED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO SHOVE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS
THE LAKE SHORES WHILE ALSO HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OF
ITS OWN...ALL OF WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND FOR
WHICH A SWATH OF LIKELY POPS REMAINS IN PLAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY ONSLAUGHT OF
A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF
WEAKER MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF THESE LIKELY ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONSEQUENTLY PLUNGING TO BETWEEN -25C
AND -30C THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS OF AROUND 10
ABOVE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN OUT TO BE WEDNESDAY'S
MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS HIGHLY LIKELY TO STEADILY
FALL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
COUPLED WITH EXPECTED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...THIS MAY LEAD TO
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 BELOW
ZERO...WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
HEADLINES.

BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY MANAGE TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN
MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IT SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BRIEFLY LIGHTER WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH WOULD ALLOW READINGS TO POTENTIALLY FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS IF REALIZED. OTHERWISE...A SLOWLY
BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A RELATIVELY LOW CAP
AND THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE FRIGID AIRMASS. THE ONE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE
ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND A
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON MAY RESULT IN SOME
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT CLIPPER LOW
WILL DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE...THE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN WHICH WOULD SEND ANY LEFTOVER LAKE SNOWS BACK
NORTHWARD TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH THESE LIKELY ALSO
WEAKENING OVER TIME AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH AND SHEAR INCREASES
SOME.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE OUT
AHEAD OF IT POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WHILE ALSO HELPING TO REINVIGORATE THE LAKE
SNOWS. WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW APPEARING LIKELY PRIOR TO
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...THIS COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF SOME
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS SHOVE THE LAKE SNOWS BACK SOUTH TO THE
TYPICAL SNOW BELTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS TO BE A MORE QUIET PATTERN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
BOTH FORECASTING AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NATIONS MID SECTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO THE
UPPER 20S BY SUNDAY...THOUGH SUCH READINGS WOULD STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...ALTHOUGH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND IN LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW) AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SWATH EAST OF KROC AND KSYR. SFC
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STRONG TODAY AS
WELL...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...LAKE SNOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
THE SNOWS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE MAIN TAF SITES (KBUF/KIAG AND KROC)
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAY BREAKS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IFR WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY...IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES AND A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC SFC HIGH
WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
GALES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR AT LEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE
INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
LOWERING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN FRESHEN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS COULD LEAD TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ON LK ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ006>008-012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ005-006-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LOZ042-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

NYZ012-019-020-085-061030-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-021-061030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
ALLEGANY-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-061030-
WAYNE-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-061030-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-008-061030-
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-061030-
JEFFERSON-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-061030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042-062-061030-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-061030-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-061030-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
523 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR/RSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
620 AM EST MON JAN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIPLEY                  42.27N  79.71W
01/04/2015                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON SHORTMOND RD.

1237 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CLYMER                  42.03N  79.64W
01/04/2015                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON RT 474.

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NIAGARA FALLS           43.09N  79.02W
01/04/2015                   NIAGARA            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON RICHMOND AVE.

0145 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHELBY                  43.19N  78.39W
01/04/2015                   ORLEANS            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN ON TELEGRAPH RD.

0150 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG IRONDEQUOIT             43.21N  77.57W
01/04/2015                   MONROE             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON ST. PAUL BOULEVARD AND COVINGTON.

0210 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GAINES                  43.29N  78.22W
01/04/2015                   ORLEANS            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN ON RT 104.

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG OAKFIELD                42.97N  78.97W
01/04/2015                   ERIE               NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON LOCKPORT RD.

0305 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ORCHARD PARK            42.76N  78.75W
01/04/2015                   ERIE               NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON BAKER RD NEAR BRAUNVIEW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1500003 BUF1500004 BUF1500002 BUF1500006 BUF1500001
BUF1500007 BUF1500008 BUF1500005

JJR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

NYZ004>008-051315-
CAYUGA NY-JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-WAYNE NY-
644 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 641 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR OSWEGO TO PARISH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  REDFIELD AND SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR...
  OSWEGO...
  PARISH...
  HIGHMARKET AND LOWVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 32 AND 40.

* ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...
  AND SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4342 7552 4348 7580 4333 7588 4332 7585
      4315 7588 4319 7608 4326 7620 4322 7619
      4329 7692 4335 7670 4343 7663 4353 7642
      4352 7629 4354 7623 4368 7621 4378 7623
      4386 7513 4362 7510

DPK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
816 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

NYZ004>006-008-051445-
CAYUGA NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-WAYNE NY-
816 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 805 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM OSWEGO TO PARISH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  OSWEGO...
  PHOENIX...
  PORT ONTARIO...
  PULASKI...
  CENTRAL SQUARE...
  SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR...
  REDFIELD...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 32 AND 37.

* ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
  AND SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4342 7552 4348 7580 4333 7588 4329 7586
      4315 7589 4319 7608 4326 7620 4322 7619
      4320 7629 4323 7630 4322 7643 4330 7689
      4335 7670 4343 7663 4353 7642 4354 7624
      4368 7620 4360 7515

DPK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

NYZ004>006-051600-
CAYUGA NY-OSWEGO NY-WAYNE NY-
939 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 930 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED MINETTO TO PULASKI. THIS BAND
  WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH IMPACTING FULTON BY 10 AM.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  MINETTO...
  PALERMO...
  FULTON...
  NINE MILE POINT...
  PHOENIX...
  CENTRAL SQUARE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 32 AND 35.

* ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...
  AND SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4347 7582 4333 7588 4329 7586 4315 7589
      4319 7608 4326 7620 4322 7619 4320 7627
      4323 7630 4322 7643 4329 7691 4335 7670
      4343 7663 4353 7642 4352 7629 4355 7622
      4350 7576 4347 7576