Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
950 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRISK WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL KEY THE MAIN CHANGE IN
WIND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
LAKE EFFECT BANDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE LAKES...WITH MODESTLY SHEARED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE LAKES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPLIT FLOW AT 900 PM...BUT
RADAR SHOWS THE NORTHERN BAND IS SLIDING SOUTH. IT APPEARS WINDS
HAVE BEEN TOO STRONG FOR A SINGULAR ORGANIZED BAND TO
FORM...INSTEAD THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED THIS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE WITH THESE SPLIT BANDS CONVERGING
ACROSS GENESEE COUNTY AND WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS INTO ORLEANS AND
MONROE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (NMM/HRRR/RGEM/ARW)
CAPTURES THE BAND POSITION...BUT NOT THE SPLIT FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE
IS LIKELY TO PUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND AND RESULT IN A
BRIEF CONSOLIDATION WHILE IT PUSHES THE BAND SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
EVENING. THE BAND SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTH TOWNS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE SHORTWAVE WELL. THE SPLIT
BAND WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN DOWNTOWN BUFFALO AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...BUT IT WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS AT ITS
CONVERGENCES ACROSS GENESEE COUNTY AND SOUTH AND EAST OF DOWNTOWN
BUFFALO. TOTAL OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 12 INCHES IN
THE WARNING AREA...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN GENESEE
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

THE BAND SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH DRIER
AIR...BUT WHAT DOES REMAIN SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS DOWNTOWN
AND TOWARD NIAGARA FALLS. SNOW SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE...PERHAPS
BRINGING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...RADAR SHOWS A SPLIT BAND ALSO DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 900 PM. THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER EACH BAND BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR. THIS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY UPSLOPING IN THE BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE BAND
WILL SHIFT SOUTH A BIT LATE TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE AS
WELL. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY. NIGTHTIME ACCUMULATION OF 8
TO 16 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS BAND...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE BAND WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH THE DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH MOISTURE FROM THE OTHER LAKES
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY PACE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD FOR ALL AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS...WHICH COUPLED WITH THE BRISK SW WINDS WILL
BRING SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S...A LITTLE WARMER THAN
TODAY THANKS TO WARMER -10C TO -12C AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
WESTERN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS US LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE CONTINUED VERY COLD FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
SNOWS TO PERSIST OFF BOTH LAKES. THE FOCUS OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT BACK TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE BUFFALO
SOUTH TOWNS AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY AS FLOW VEERS WESTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REINVIGORATE THE LAKE BANDS AS THEY DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO AS WELL AS CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES.

LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARDS AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AROUND
TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION IN A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOME NORMALCY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INITIALLY THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL STORM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF EJECTING SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW AND HAS
BEEN FOR A FEW CYCLES NOW. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
OVERLY HIGH GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHWEST LOW AND PULL IT INTO OUR REGION IS STILL OVER THE DATA
SPARSE GULF OF ALASKA. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF AREA AND ANY MINOR DEVIATION FROM
THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE A CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON FINAL
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND ANY POTENTIAL ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THEREFORE WILL PROVIDE JUST A GENERAL OVERVIEW WITH THE ADDED
THOUGHT THAT FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE IS BETTER SAMPLED BY NOAM UPPER AIR NETWORK.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG SLUG OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK SATURATION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...IF NOT SOONER.
A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AND THE
EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DURATION OF ANY WINTRY MIX IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE
TO EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW...THEN A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. A FAIRLY QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

DESPITE THE MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WE THINK THAT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE OR SNOWFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO
RESIDE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. THERE WILL HOWEVER PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF SNOW AND ICE THAT COULD CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR LOOKS TO RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROPPING MUCH BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OF BOTH LAKES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT...DEPENDING HOW THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SET UP. BUT
MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-
BKN040.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SPLIT LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO BUF/ROC DURING THIS
TIME...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THE BAND DROPS SOUTH OF EACH
LOCATION. STEADY SNOW IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF BUF/IAG/ROC UNTIL
AROUND 09Z WHEN A WEAKER BAND LIFTS NORTH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHOULD IMPACT BUF/IAG THURSDAY MORNING...MEANDERING NEAR OR
BETWEEN THE TWO SITES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...SPLIT BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ART...WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF 1/4SM HEAVY SNOW LIKELY THROUGH
AROUND 08Z UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE DISRUPTS THIS SOMEWHAT. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN LAKE EFFECT TRENDS...WHERE
SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE BAND MAY CAUSE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY A GALE WARNING ON THE
LAKES. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO WEAKEN.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ002-
     003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ007-008-012230-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-012230-
OSWEGO-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-004-005-013-014-021-012230-
NIAGARA-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002-003-012230-
ORLEANS-MONROE-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-012230-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010>012-085-012230-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-012230-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-062-012230-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-012230-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-012230-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
526 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
816 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ001>003-010>013-019-085-010200-
CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-MONROE NY-NIAGARA
NY-ORLEANS NY-WYOMING NY-
816 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 810 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL AND
  NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTY...GENESEE COUNTY TO
  SOUTHERN ORLEANS COUNTY AND NORTH WESTERN MONROE COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  AKRON...
  CLARENCE CENTER...
  ALDEN...
  BATAVIA...
  ALABAMA...
  OAKFIELD...
  ALBION...
  BARRE CENTER...

THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 46 AND 57.

* ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH AND ACCUMULATING
  SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4261 7913 4265 7907 4269 7906 4271 7899
      4278 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903 4307 7901
      4308 7908 4332 7778 4303 7764 4254 7908
      4257 7914

SJW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
903 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ007-008-010330-
JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-
903 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 855 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO
  2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A HALF MILE OR LESS. THE
  LAKE SNOW HAS AGAIN TRANSFORMED INTO TWO BANDS ACROSS JEFFERSON
  AND EXTREME NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE FROM
  CHAUMONT BAY TO PERCH LAKE TO PHILADELPHIA AND ANTWERP...WITH
  ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM ELLISBURG AND SOUTHWICK BEACH TO
  ADAMS...RODMAN AND NATURAL BRIDGE.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  STONY POINT...
  HENDERSON HARBOR...
  PHILADELPHIA...
  ANTWERP...
  ADAMS CENTER AND ADAMS...
  RODMAN...
  NATURAL BRIDGE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 38 AND 49.

* ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND ACCUMULATING
  SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4394 7518 4367 7607 4369 7622 4380 7624
      4384 7631 4387 7630 4391 7637 4389 7645
      4393 7641 4388 7629 4391 7622 4387 7621
      4390 7614 4397 7621 4397 7630 4407 7638
      4410 7636 4431 7565 4410 7516 4396 7515

HIBBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
904 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ001>003-010>013-019-085-010300-
CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-MONROE NY-NIAGARA
NY-ORLEANS NY-WYOMING NY-
904 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 900 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY
  NORTHEAST THROUGH GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES.  THE HEAVIEST
  SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST ERIE COUNTY THROUGH MOST OF
  GENESEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ORLEANS COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  BUFFALO...
  AMHERST...
  AKRON...
  CLARENCE CENTER...
  ALDEN...
  PEMBROKE AND EAST PEMBROKE...
  CORFU...
  BATAVIA...
  ALABAMA...
  OAKFIELD...
  BARRE CENTER...

THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 46 AND 57.

* ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH AND ACCUMULATING
  SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4269 7906 4278 7886 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4306 7901 4308 7907 4336 7784 4335 7779
      4303 7764 4254 7908 4257 7914

SJW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ001>003-010>013-019-020-085-010400-
CATTARAUGUS NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-MONROE
NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-WYOMING NY-
1005 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 1000 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY
  NORTHEAST THROUGH GENESEE COUNTY AND NORTHERN WYOMING
  COUNTY.THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL ERIE
  COUNTY THROUGH MOST OF GENESEE COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN WYOMING
  COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  BUFFALO...
  AMHERST...
  AKRON...
  CLARENCE CENTER...
  ALDEN...
  PEMBROKE AND EAST PEMBROKE...
  CORFU...
  BATAVIA...
  ALABAMA...
  OAKFIELD...
  ALEXANDER...

THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 47 AND 58.

* ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH AND ACCUMULATING
  SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4269 7906 4271 7899 4273 7898 4278 7886
      4284 7887 4285 7889 4294 7892 4300 7903
      4333 7782 4299 7763 4250 7909 4257 7914

SJW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ007-008-010500-
JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-
1018 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 1010 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY
  FROM HENDERSON BAY TO WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM AND NORTHERN LEWIS
  COUNTY NEAR NATURAL BRIDGE AND HARRISVILLE. A SMALLER AREA OF LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY NEAR ADAMS WILL WEAKEN
  AND BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER SNOW BAND.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  ADAMS...
  ADAMS CENTER...
  WATERTOWN AND BARNES CORNERS...
  CALCIUM...
  FORT DRUM...
  WEST CARTHAGE...
  CARTHAGE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 38 AND 49.

* ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND ACCUMULATING
  SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED BY HAVING AN EMERGENCY KIT...EXTRA
BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OR GETS STUCK. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A FULLY CHARGED
CELL PHONE.

LAT...LON 4400 7515 4371 7593 4371 7602 4367 7606
      4369 7622 4380 7624 4391 7637 4389 7645
      4393 7641 4388 7629 4391 7622 4387 7621
      4390 7614 4398 7622 4397 7630 4405 7631
      4407 7637 4408 7636 4428 7556 4410 7516

HIBBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1055 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ002-003-010>013-019-020-085-010445-
CATTARAUGUS NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-MONROE
NY-ORLEANS NY-WYOMING NY-
1055 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 1053 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL ERIE
  COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH GENESEE COUNTY AND NORTHERN
  WYOMING COUNTY.THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY OVER EAST
  CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY THROUGH MOST OF GENESEE COUNTY AND INTO
  NORTHERN WYOMING COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  ALDEN...
  PEMBROKE AND EAST PEMBROKE...
  CORFU...
  BATAVIA...
  BYRON...
  ATTICA...
  ALEXANDER...

THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 47 AND 58.

* ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH AND ACCUMULATING
  SNOWFALL WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4269 7906 4271 7899 4273 7898 4278 7886
      4284 7887 4285 7889 4293 7892 4294 7891
      4329 7781 4292 7762 4250 7909 4257 7914

SJW