Small Craft Advisory 47, NWS Buffalo, NY

905 
WHUS71 KBUF 170148
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

LEZ040-041-LOZ043-044-170300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-150617T0200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
948 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A RENEWED
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...A TRAILING
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ITS PARENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOT OF LIFT...AND
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MODEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES
BUILDING INTO OUR REGION...WITH DIURNAL CU FLATTENING/THINNING
OUT WITH BOTH CONTINUED DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND
DIMINISHING HEATING.

BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER...
ALONG WITH REFRESHINGLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. THE STRONG DRYING TREND SHOULD
ALSO LIKELY HELP TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE INCOMING DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SETTLE INTO THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE 50S
TONIGHT... WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +13C THEN MOSTLY
SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHERE A PREVAILING N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS CONFINED
TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DID BACK OFF ON THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO A LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A LACKLUSTER BAROCLINIC
REGION ALOFT.

THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
CURRENT AND PREVIOUS SREF RUNS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING FURTHER
SOUTH/WEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND PA. WIND FIELD FORECAST IS
RELATIVELY WEAK OVERALL...BUT WITH SOME MODELS SPORTING A 40KT
LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 00Z
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNDERWHELMING THOUGH. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE 2+ DAYS TO DRY
OUT...WILL HAVE TO BE WEARY OF ANY TRAINING CELLS ONCE AGAIN.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING LATER OVERNIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS /BRIEFLY/ DROPPING BELOW 50F FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY JUNE...WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 70.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY OVERHEAD...BUT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVING IN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REIGNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT
TROPICAL REMNANTS LIKELY CAUSING SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE LIKELY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...HIGHEST SOUTH...TOGETHER WITH A
PROBABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

ONCE THE BLOB OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE MOVES EAST...THERE
SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE. PERHAPS
MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE DRY PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE WET PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...WITH MORE
FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LIFTING TO VFR AND
EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT OVER TIME.

THE LONE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE PASSAGE OF
A TRAILING SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ITS PARENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOT OF LIFT...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A SECONDARY ROUND OF CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME VERY BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

ONCE THIS SECONDARY FEATURE PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS...WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING
DEWPOINTS LIKELY PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY MORNING...
THEN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODEST /15-20 KT/ WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS EVENING...IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...A SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINALLY ADVISORY-
WORTHY WINDS MAY FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY AND USHERS IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS/MINIMAL
WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

NYZ001>003-010-011-170815-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
406 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-170815-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
406 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-170815-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
406 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-170815-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
406 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>008-170815-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
406 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF