Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2015

Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Buffalo, NY

April 6, 2015

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Apr 6, 2015, 3:42 PM EDT. It took effect at Apr 7, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 45 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 6, 2015, 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 7, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Apr 9, 2015, 4:57 AM EDT
In force
45 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

533 
WHUS71 KBUF 061942
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015

LOZ042-043-070345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.150407T1200Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
342 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
  NORTHEAST TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 5 TO 8 FEET
  WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
13 follow-up statements
736 
WHUS71 KBUF 070242
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015

LOZ042-043-071045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.150407T1200Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1042 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO
2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 
  NORTHEAST TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. 

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 5 TO 8 FEET 
  WEDNESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
822 
WHUS71 KBUF 070624
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

LOZ042-043-071430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.150407T1200Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
224 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
272 
WHUS71 KBUF 071427
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

LOZ042-043-072200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1027 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...AS HIGH AS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR/TMA/WCH
659 
WHUS71 KBUF 071952
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

LOZ042-080400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
352 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
352 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...AS HIGH AS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR/HITCHCOCK
998 
WHUS71 KBUF 072341
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

LOZ042-080745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
741 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-080745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
741 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
374 
WHUS71 KBUF 080241
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1041 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

LOZ042-081045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1041 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-081045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1041 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
559 
WHUS71 KBUF 080843
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
443 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

LOZ042-081645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
443 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-081645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
443 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
734 
WHUS71 KBUF 081432
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

LOZ042-082300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1032 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-082300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1032 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR
311 
WHUS71 KBUF 082006
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

LOZ042-090600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
406 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-090600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
406 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR
143 
WHUS71 KBUF 082355
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

LOZ042-090800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
755 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-090600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
755 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH
456 
WHUS71 KBUF 090227
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

LOZ042-091030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1027 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-090600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1027 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
393 
WHUS71 KBUF 090552
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

LOZ043-090700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
152 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LOZ042-091200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
152 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH
100 
WHUS71 KBUF 090857
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
457 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

LOZ042-091700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150409T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.150410T1200Z-150411T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
457 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-091700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.150410T0000Z-150412T0000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
457 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-091700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.150410T1200Z-150411T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
457 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY. 

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 6, 3:30 PM EDT, 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 6, 3:30 PM EDT, 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH JUST LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DROP
BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. THIS WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AGAIN AND BRINGS MUCH WARMER AIR AND
MORE SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND
EXTENDS FROM W-E NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN MOST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S
COMMONPLACE AWAY FROM THE LAKES. MEANWHILE...IT IS ABRUPTLY COLDER
NEAR THE LAKESHORES WHERE A HEALTHY LAKE BREEZE HAS (AND WILL) KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.

A CLUSTER OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA. MOST GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB CAPTURING THIS...BUT
THE 12Z GFS DOES SHOW IT AND THUS CAN BE USED AS A GUIDE FOR ITS
PROGRESSION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY SO IT SHOULD INITIALLY
STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES NORTH OF THIS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRACK ENE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A CONSENSUS OF NAM/RGEM/GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN DROPPING THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CAN/T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT ROUND OF STEADIER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECOND WAVE WITH A
CONSENSUS TIMING CENTERED AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AND POSSIBLY ELSEWHERE. ALL AND ALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT SIMPLY
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVES WHICH WILL TRACK ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BOTH TONIGHT AND
ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT MOST PRECIPITATION
WHICH WILL MAINLY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE
PRIMARILY RAIN. FORECAST THICKNESSES/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FAVOR UNMODIFIED
TEMPERATURE GRIDS OVER BIAS CORRECTED SINCE LITTLE IF ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH MOST AREAS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE CONCENTRATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT OCCASIONALLY
RIPPLE DOWN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH PERIODS OF RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER BETWEEN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REACH ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT...
WITH THE BULK OF THE AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
FRONTAL ZONE. ONE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A DRY
PUSH DOWN INTO MOST THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM KEEP THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH AND MORE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF THE DRIER GFS VERIFIES...
MOIST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE THRUWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WITHIN THE AREA OF
POTENTIAL PRECIP...BUT IT APPEARS IF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT PRECIP REMAIN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER MAY PRODUCE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE AS
THE FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. OVERALL QPF
LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK NATURE
OF THE FORCING. EXPECT A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
SO. THE HIGHER BULLSEYES SEEN IN SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS
APPEAR OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL ALSO AID IN PUSHING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RECOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL AND FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MORE ORGANIZED FORCING REMOVED...EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS TO END. A BROAD AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND MID 30S NORTH COUNTRY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES ARRIVES THURSDAY...WITH A STRONGER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL FORCE A STRONGER WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE MID
LEVEL WAVE...MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THE
AIRMASS MAY BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH
LAYER TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...STOUT
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORGANIZED SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FROM A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...AND IT MAY ALMOST
FEEL SOMEWHAT HUMID FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SPRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER AND
FARTHER NORTHWEST TAKING A STRONG SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES
TO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GFS TRACK AND INTENSITY WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH A FAVORABLE TRACK AND STRONG 50+ KNOT WINDS ALOFT
PERSISTING IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE MUCH WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP WINDS VERY MODEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW FAVOR THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION. WIND EVENTS HAVE OCCURRED IN APRIL IN THE
PAST...BUT ARE NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED THIS LATE IN THE YEAR.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A COOLER
AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4C BY
SATURDAY ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AT LEAST BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WRAPS UP
IN THE PLAINS AND FORCES DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES. THIS SHOULD BRING
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO WIN OUT
OVER THE COLD MORE OFTEN THAN NOT OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MONDAY...
KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION
CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING WIND SHIFTS DUE TO LAKE BREEZES.

THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THIS IS LIKELY TO LOWER CIGS AND RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SINCE AIR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY MOIST TO THE NORTH THE TAFS KEEP ALL BUT JHW IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN
LIKELY AT TIMES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LAKE-BREEZE ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL
BE STRONGEST NEAR THE SHORELINE. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BUILD WAVES
TO SCA CRITERIA.

THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THE VARIOUS PERIODS OF RAIN THIS WEEK WILL
BE LIMITED ENOUGH AND SPREAD OUT ENOUGH TO ONLY RESULT IN MODEST
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.

THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK
STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HASTEN
SNOWMELT...AND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS WELL. RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND RAPID
SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE BLACK RIVER
AND THE MOOSE RIVER...AND OTHER SMALLER RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MMEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PEAK FLOWS ON SATURDAY FOR THE
MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER AND BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE...WHILE PEAK
FLOWS WOULD NOT EXTEND DOWN THE BLACK RIVER TO WATERTOWN UNTIL
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK GIVEN THE VERY SLOW
RESPONDING NATURE OF THE LOWER BLACK RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 6, 5:28 AM EDT, 10 hours 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
528 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-070930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
528 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-070930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
528 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2015Every small craft advisory in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.