Small Craft Advisory 156, NWS Buffalo, NY

909 
WHUS71 KBUF 210243
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

LEZ040-041-211045-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T0243Z-151222T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
943 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
943 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-211045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T2100Z-151222T0600Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
943 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-211045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T2100Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
943 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH

860 
WHUS71 KBUF 210556
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1256 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

LEZ040-041-211400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1256 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1256 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-211400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T2100Z-151222T0600Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1256 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-211400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T2100Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1256 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

694 
WHUS71 KBUF 210926
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

LEZ040-041-211730-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
426 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...AS HIGH AS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-211730-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T1200Z-151222T0100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
426 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211730-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
426 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-211730-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T1800Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
426 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR/RSH

026 
WHUS71 KBUF 211139
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
639 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

LEZ040-041-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
639 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T1200Z-151222T0100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
639 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
639 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T1800Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
639 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

349 
WHUS71 KBUF 211736
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1236 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

LEZ040-041-220145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1236 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-220100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1236 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-220145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.151221T1800Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1236 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-220145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1236 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

318 
WHUS71 KBUF 212033
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

LOZ042-212145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
333 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
THIS TIME.

$$

LOZ045-212145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
333 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
THIS TIME.

$$

LEZ040-041-220445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
333 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-220100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
333 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WOOD

820 
WHUS71 KBUF 212344
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

LEZ020-220045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
644 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LEZ040-041-220600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
644 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

912 
WHUS71 KBUF 220229
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
929 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

LEZ040-041-220600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
929 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

051 
WHUS71 KBUF 220412
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1112 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

LEZ040-041-220515-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0156.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1112 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY...WITH ONLY
SOME LEFTOVER NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
NOTABLY MILDER AIR WILL BE CIRCULATED UP ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH ON MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...IT WILL GENERALLY
BE UNSETTLED WITH THE MERCURY GRADUALLY CLIMBING TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOOKING CLOSER TO
HOME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
STREAMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST BAND STREAMING OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS SECOND BAND OF CLOUDS IS MERGED WITH
ANOTHER BROADER BAND OF DENSE STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

IT WILL BE A QUIET DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING TRANSLATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE BUFFALO
METRO WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...CUTTING OFF THE LAKE
EFFECT. SIMILARLY...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...HOWEVER IMPROVEMENT THERE WILL NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. IN EITHER
CASE...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT FAIR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE END OF THE DAY AND FAIR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND GENESEE VALLEY CREEPING
ABOVE THE 40 DEGREE MARK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TEMPS WILL RUN A
LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLDER AIR ALOFT AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS THERE WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL DRIVE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON THE AREA MONDAY. INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS LIMITED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BROAD/FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. CONSEQUENTLY...WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF MILD AIR RIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL IN TURN ENSURE
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME PERIODIC SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AS WELL...COURTESY OF A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL LIFT BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FIRST OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INITIALLY BE DRAPED FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF
MONDAY MORNING... BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TO ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ON INTO QUEBEC DURING TUESDAY. AFTER A DRY
START TO THE DAY...STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION BETWEEN
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL GET AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST FROM BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE...AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A 55-70 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET. WHILE A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS CONFINED ALOFT... IT WILL STILL TURN BREEZY
TO WINDY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH AS
HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH. OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVELY MILDER AIR ADVECTING
INTO OUR REGION WILL HELP BOOST 925 MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN +1C AND
+5C...WHICH SHOULD IN TURN TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

AS THE FIRST SURFACE WAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE MONDAY
NIGHT... THE BEST OVERALL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND LOW
LEVEL JET...LEAVING OUR REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A REGION OF
SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. DUE TO THIS... LINGERING NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE... WITH LOWS MOSTLY
RANGING BETWEEN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC...AND IN THE PROCESS WILL DRAG ITS TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES OUR AREA...IT WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THEREBY LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WITH OUR AIRMASS RUNNING A LITTLE BIT
WARMER THAN ON MONDAY DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD
CORRESPONDINGLY BE A BIT WARMER... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND THE WARMEST OVERALL
READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH A
SHORT PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
REDEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES RESULTS IN LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...THE RENEWED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...WITH EVENING
LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY CLIMBING
READINGS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TO JAMES BAY AS ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SIMILAR PATH. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE... THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
WILL HELP TO PUMP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GOMEX-BASED WARMTH AND
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION... LEADING TO BOTH A
RENEWED LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR-
RECORD TO POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. SHOULD 925 MB TEMPS
SURGE TO BETWEEN +10C AND +13C ON WEDNESDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF...SUCH WARMTH ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EVEN IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OUR AIRMASS SHOULD WARM EVEN A BIT MORE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
NIGHTTIME LOWS FAILING TO DROP BELOW THE LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...OR LEVELS MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING AND EARLY
SUMMER THAN LATE DECEMBER.

FOR EASY REFERENCE...CURRENT RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD /WEDNESDAY TO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY/ ARE PROVIDED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND ATTENDANT SHOWER POTENTIAL FROM
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LINGER UNTIL THE SECOND LOW
SWEEPS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH
THE 00Z/20 SUITE OF GUIDANCE SOME DIFFERENCES STILL PERSIST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE EXACT TIMING OF WHICH WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORNING
FROPA ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND A TIMING LATER IN THE DAY FURTHER
EAST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN RESULT IN THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES LYING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD. AGAIN...CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY ARE PROVIDED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
EASY REFERENCE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY STILL BOTH LOOK TO BE QUIET AND DRY AS EXPANSIVE
SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER NEW YORK
STATE. WHILE COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN OUR TEMPS PULLING BACK FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS
OF MIDWEEK...THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAR FROM
COLD...AND AS SUCH READINGS WILL STILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH LOWS OF AROUND 40 EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOLLOWING ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

LOOKING OUT TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THIS PERIOD...YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS STATES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
CORRESPONDING SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND PUSHING A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION BY NEXT
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING AGAIN FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN HELPING TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG THROUGH 17-
18Z AS A DETERIORATING BAND OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THAT POINT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL 00Z MON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE A 45-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 03Z.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENCOURAGE WINDS TO DIMINISH...WAVES WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO EAST OF HAMLIN BEACH.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL THEN FRESHEN DURING THE
COURSE OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE HIGHEST WAVES INTO CANADIAN
WATERS... BUT ANOTHER FOUND OF SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALTHOUGH BUFFALO HAS GOTTEN ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW...THIS
WINTER CONTINUES TO BE OFF TO AN EXTRAORDINARILY WARM START.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING NEAR
RECORD TO POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE). LISTED BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS
FOR DECEMBER 23RD AND 24TH...

WEDNESDAY...

CITY.........RECORD HIGH (F)....RECORD WARM LOW (F).....

BUFFALO......59 / 1957...........46 / 1941
ROCHESTER....60 / 1957...........43 / 2006
WATERTOWN....58 / 1990...........42 / 2006

CHRISTMAS EVE...

BUFFALO......59 / 1964...........46 / 1979
ROCHESTER....58 / 1982...........47 / 2014
WATERTOWN....59 / 2014...........49 / 2014

WHEN CONSIDERING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...
DECEMBER 2015 STANDS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME THE WARMEST DECEMBER
ON RECORD IN WESTERN NEW YORK. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE MAY TOP 40 DEGREES...WHICH PUTS THE
FOLLOWING RECORDS IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY.

WARMEST MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER...

CITY        TEMP YEAR
BUFFALO.....37.6 (1923)
ROCHESTER...39.0 (2006)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BUF WSR-88D IS OPERATING...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL
INTERMITTENT ISSUES IMPACTING DATA QUALITY AND TIMELINESS.

SOMETIME THIS MORNING...TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO REPLACE A
PART THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DATA QUALITY AND TIMELINESS
ISSUES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...THOMAS/APFFEL/JJR
EQUIPMENT...THOMAS/JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
407 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-211000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
407 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-211000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
407 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR