Lake Effect Snow Warning 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

198 
WWUS41 KBUF 142213
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
513 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

NYZ007-150615-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150214T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150216T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
513 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND
  CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF
  YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

&&

$$

NYZ021-150615-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150216T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150215T1100Z/
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WELLSVILLE
513 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ALLEGANY COUNTY.

* TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE 
  TONIGHT. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE 
  MONDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND BITTER COLD.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND
  CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF
  NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED
  VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ008-150615-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150216T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150215T1100Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
513 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE 
  TONIGHT. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE 
  MONDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND BITTER COLD.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND
  CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF
  NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED
  VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-085-150615-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150215T2300Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
513 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS
  SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND
  CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF
  NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
  WILL PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
  TIMES. SOME ROADS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ011>014-150615-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150215T2300Z/
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA
513 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...GENESEE...WYOMING...LIVINGSTON...AND ONTARIO 
  COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND EXTREME COLD.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
  SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND
  CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF
  NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
  WILL PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
  TIMES. SOME ROADS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS MAY BECOME NEARLY 
  IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ001>006-150615-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150215T2300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
513 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...NORTHERN 
  CAYUGA...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND EXTREME COLD.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES TONIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
  SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND
  CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF
  NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
  WILL PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
  TIMES. SOME ROADS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS MAY BECOME NEARLY 
  IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ010-150615-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150215T2300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
513 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF 
  BUFFALO. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT...AND AROUND AN INCH
  SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND
  CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF
  NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
  WILL PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
  TIMES. SOME ROADS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS MAY BECOME NEARLY 
  IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

JJR/TMA/CHURCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
959 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SURGES INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAY NOT EVEN GET
ABOVE ZERO...WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. THE COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NEXT ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER MAY NOT BE THE HEAVIEST SNOW OF THE
SEASON...BUT THE SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LIFE THREATENING COMBINATION. IF A VEHICLE BECOMES DISABLED
FROM THE SNOWY CONDITIONS...PASSENGERS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

THE EXTREME CONDITIONS WILL NOT START UNTIL A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

AT 1000 AM...BUFFALO RADAR SHOWING A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY WHICH IS PRODUCING A BAND OF VERY HEAVY
SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. UNTIL THE FRONT
REACHES THE AREA TOWARD NOON THIS BAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW AND WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DIVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY DEEPENING
RAPIDLY ONCE IT REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A QUICK BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS.
MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. A HRRR WEIGHTED
CONSENSUS OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS INTO BUF-JHW AROUND NOON
AND ROC-ELZ AROUND 2 PM.

IN ADDITION TO LIFT WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A SMALL AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HEAD OF THE 500 MB LOW WHICH TRAILS THE
SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON WHERE THIS WILL BE...WITH
A CONSENSUS FORECAST BRINGING ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND INTO OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
AN HOUR AND PRODUCE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SINCE IT WILL COINCIDE
WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW INTENSITY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WESTERN NEW YORK UNDERNEATH THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW. ONCE THIS UPPER LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST...THERE
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND AN UPTICK IN WINDS.
THIS SHOULD ENERGIZE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE BACK OF THE UPPER LOW
TO OFFSET THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS. THIS IS WHEN BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO CREATE THE MOST
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO 25
TO 35 BELOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...THE LATEST FORECAST HAS ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND DEEP
MOISTURE...EXPECT UPSLOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
TO ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS A BIT. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FROM
ROCHESTER TOWARD SYRACUSE...WHERE 8 TO 14 INCHES IS FORECAST. HAVE
ALSO TWEAKED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR BUFFALO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH SETTLED ACROSS THE CITY EARLY
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS IN DECADES WILL START THIS TIME PERIOD AS A
LOBE OF -25C TO -27C AIR AT 850 HPA REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
BITING NORTHWEST WIND. TO ADD TO THE EXTREME BITTERNESS...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR THE EXTREME TEMPERATURES...

SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FRESH COLD AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH -25C TO -27C 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AND CAA
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING -25C AIR AS LOW AS JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. NAEFS MEAN TEMPERATURE AND RETURN
INTERVALS GIVE THIS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A ONCE IN 10 YEAR
OCCURRENCE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES OF -26C OR LOWER HAVE BEEN
MEASURED ONLY 12 TIMES IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY VIA BUFFALO BALLOON
SOUNDINGS (TAKEN TWICE A DAY) SINCE 1948...WE ALSO VERIFY THAT THIS
AIRMASS OCCURS ABOUT ONCE EVERY DECADE OR SO. IN FACT THE COLDEST
850 HPA TEMPERATURE MEASURED VIA BUFFALO BALLOON SOUNDING (TAKEN AT
12Z AND 00Z) IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -27.8C BACK ON 12Z FEBRUARY
1, 1971.

THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH DAYLIGHT HIGHS 0F TO -5F ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS AND DOWN TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPON
THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP
FARTHER DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION. AS SKIES CLEAR AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE...AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES OVER A FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK
WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 10 BELOW ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS...WITH
WIDESPREAD -20S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS -30F
BELOW IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE WATERTOWN AIRPORT. THESE
AIR TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
DROP TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE OF FEBRUARY 16TH. PLEASE SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR VALUES.

FOR THESE SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO COME TO FRUITION...OUR WINDS
MUST BE LIGHT...AND A LIGHT WIND WILL ONLY NUDGE WIND CHILLS LOWER.
WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35 BELOW...AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THESE
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS. IF WINDS WERE TO REMAIN STEADY AROUND 10
MPH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS LOW...THOUGH WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE -25 TO -35
BELOW RANGE.

MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. WARMING ALOFT WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS WILL ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO RISE ABOVE 0F FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PROBABLY
KEEP MOST AREAS BELOW 5F THOUGH.

AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP...FIRST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LATER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. MOST AREAS ACROSS WNY WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
0F...WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A DROP CONSIDERING DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAYTIME. TO THE EAST WHERE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP 5 TO PERHAPS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE REGION LATE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
ALSO AID IN MAINTAINING LOWS NOT AS HARSH AS THE PRIOR NIGHT.

FOR THE SNOWFALL...

SUNDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE PRESENTING ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS...ACROSS THE TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS WELL AS
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPGLIDE...SEEN AT THE VERY LOW
255K SURFACE...WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC SURFACE FLATTENS WITH THE APPROACHING
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. THIS CURRENT COLD AIRMASS HAS
LIKELY SHRUNK THE OPEN WATERS ON LAKE ONTARIO TO WELL LESS THAN 50
PERCENT...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH OPEN WATERS AND THERMAL
HEAT FLUX THROUGH THE THIN ICE TO CREATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FALL. A LACKING SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOWFLAKES TO THE SMALL SCALE...WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SUNDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH
OVERNIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BECOME THE DOMINATE CHARACTERISTIC OF
THE SNOW...AND EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. BACKING
WINDS WILL BRING THESE NOW WEAKEN BANDS OF SNOW TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
AND THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
ENDED BY THE END OF MONDAY NIGHT.

BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS. OPEN
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL EXPERIENCE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES AS WINDS GUST 30 TO 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BE LOWER TOWARDS
THE STATE LINE...AND THE MORE FORESTED SOUTHERN TIER WILL LOWER
THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL COME SUNDAY
WITH THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FLOW. AFTER THIS...THE REGION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

A CLIMATE NOTE...OUR THREE MAIN CLIMATE SITES (BUFFALO, ROCHESTER,
WATERTOWN) ALL CONSIDER A CLIMATE DAY FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT.
THUS IF AIR TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE ZERO AT MIDNIGHT LEADING
INTO SUNDAY THESE ABOVE ZERO AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERED THE
HIGH FOR THE DAY...EVEN IF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY REMAIN WELL
BELOW ZERO. FOR SUNDAY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE REGION MAY REMAIN
ABOVE ZERO AT MIDNIGHT...AND THUS THESE VALUES WILL BE THE OFFICIAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE STATS WILL BE FOUND BELOW IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO POINT TO A POTENTIAL
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...THEN PUSHING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN FARTHER WESTWARD
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCES POPS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD DOES NOT APPEAR AS
POTENT AS THE CURRENT ROUND FOR SUNDAY...IT WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE FROM W-E THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCALLY LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BLOWING SNOW ALSO LOWERING VSBY.

AFTER THIS...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN. ANY IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF EVEN COLDER AIR
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS
WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THIS COMBINED
WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL LOWER VSBY TO 1SM OR LESS AT BUF/ROC/IAG.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY WORKS IN. DUE TO THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS...EVEN LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD FALL AS VERY SMALL CRYSTALS WHICH WILL LOWER VSBY SIGNIFICANTLY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...MVFR ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG CLIPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS AND A
30 KT NW FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE AMPLE WAVE ACTION FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THE REMAINING OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT WINDS IN THE STRONG SCA RANGE FOR NOW...BUT A FEW GUSTS TO
GALE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SHIFT.

FOLLOWING COORDINATION...HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR LAKE
ERIE...WITH A FEW HOURS OF 35 KT WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FEW TEMPERATURE CLIMATE STATS BELOW...

DAILY RECORDS:

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 15TH

            MINIMUM              LOW MAXIMUM

BUFFALO     -16F (1943)          4F (1943)
ROCHESTER   -14F (1943)          4F (1943)
WATERTOWN   -30F (1987)          1F (1987)

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16TH

            MINIMUM              LOW MAXIMUM

BUFFALO       -8F (1904)         0F (1904)
ROCHESTER     -7F (2004)        -1F (1904)
WATERTOWN    -24F (1963)         2F (2003)

ONE WAY TO VIEW THIS UPCOMING COLD OUTBREAK IS TO LOOK AT AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR A DAY (AVERAGE OF MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DAY).

LAST TIME A CLIMATE SITE HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO...

BUFFALO     JANUARY 19, 1994  HIGH: -1   LOW: -10  AVERAGE: -5.5F
ROCHESTER   JANUARY 14, 2004  HIGH:  4   LOW: -6   AVERAGE: -1.0F

RECENT TIMES A CLIMATE SITE HAD A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MINUS TEN
OR LOWER...

BUFFALO     JANUARY  6, 1996     LOW: -10F
            JANUARY 19, 1994     LOW: -10F
            JANUARY 21, 1985     LOW: -10F
            JANUARY 16, 1984     LOW: -10F
            JANUARY 17, 1982     LOW: -16F

ROCHESTER   JANUARY 21, 2005     LOW: -10F
            JANUARY 10, 2004     LOW: -12F
            JANUARY 31, 1994     LOW: -10F
            JANUARY 19, 1994     LOW: -11F
            JANUARY 16, 1994     LOW: -17F

THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAINING BELOW ZERO
FOR A 24-HR DAY PERIOD IS NOW LESS LIKELY HERE ARE THE LAST TIME
CLIMATE SITES DID ACHIEVE THIS FEAT.

BUFFALO...

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...
-3 ON FEBRUARY 10, 1899 AND FEBRUARY 11, 1885

LAST TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW ZERO...
-1 ON JANUARY 19, 1994

ROCHESTER...

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...
-4 ON JANUARY 17, 1982

LAST TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW ZERO...
-4 ON JANUARY 17, 1982

WATERTOWN...

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...
-12 ON JANUARY 3, 1981

LAST TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW ZERO...
-1 ON JANUARY 22, 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>006-
     010>014-019-020-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ021.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
         TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042>044-062>064.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

NYZ007-151745-
JEFFERSON-
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.
   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>006-010>014-019-020-085-151745-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-151745-
LEWIS-
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-151745-
ALLEGANY-
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-045-065-SLZ022-024-151745-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-151745-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>044-062>064-151745-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
905 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

NYZ001-002-010-011-141500-
ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-
905 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING...

* A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS GRAND ISLAND...THE TONAWANDAS...AMHERST AND CLARENCE
THROUGH 10 AM.

* THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE CITY OF BUFFALO...DEPEW...
CHEEKTOWAGA...AND LANCASTER THROUGH 11 AM.

THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 49 AND 54.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED BY HAVING AN EMERGENCY KIT...EXTRA
BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OR GETS STUCK. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A FULLY CHARGED
CELL PHONE.

LAT...LON 4303 7902 4326 7837 4310 7812 4281 7887
      4282 7888 4285 7887 4287 7891 4294 7892
      4296 7899 4300 7903 4302 7903

TMA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
958 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-141630-
ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-WYOMING NY-
958 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING...

* A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
  HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
  SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
  HOURS. THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SHOULD START TO MOVE EASTWARD AFTER
  NOON AS THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  TONAWANDA AND AMHERST...
  DOWNTOWN BUFFALO AND CHEEKTOWAGA...
  HAMBURG...WEST SENECA AND EAST AURORA...
  ALDEN...CORFU AND BATAVIA...

THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 48 AND 57.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED BY HAVING AN EMERGENCY KIT...EXTRA
BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OR GETS STUCK. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A FULLY CHARGED
CELL PHONE.

LAT...LON 4296 7897 4325 7823 4297 7795 4267 7889
      4275 7892 4276 7890 4279 7886 4282 7888
      4284 7887 4287 7890 4294 7892

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1132 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

NYZ001>003-010>013-019-020-085-141815-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1132 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK...

* A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
  PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
  SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
  HOURS. THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE ARCTIC
  FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG
  AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND
  BLOWING SNOW.

* DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW
  COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE
  AREA ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

* IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED BY HAVING AN EMERGENCY
  KIT...EXTRA BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR
  VEHICLE HAS MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OR GETS STUCK. MAKE SURE YOU
  HAVE A FULLY CHARGED CELL PHONE.

CHURCH